Hybrid Warfare: An Evolving Threat

Hybrid Warfare: An Evolving Threat

Context

Hybrid warfare refers to the use of diverse and unconventional tactics, combining military force with non-military tools like espionage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and political interference. The recent accusation against Russia for employing hybrid warfare tactics since its invasion of Ukraine has brought renewed attention to this evolving form of conflict.

What is Hybrid Warfare?

Hybrid warfare broadens military operations to encompass non-traditional strategies:

• Espionage: Intelligence gathering to disrupt enemy operations.

• Sabotage: Disrupting infrastructure or resources to weaken the enemy.

• Cyberattacks: Targeting digital infrastructures, such as power grids or communications systems.

• Election Interference: Manipulating elections to create instability or install favorable governments.

• Propaganda/Disinformation: Spreading false information to confuse, destabilize, or manipulate the enemy's public opinion and decision-making.

The ultimate aim is to create confusion, disrupt decision-making, and exploit vulnerabilities without engaging in full-scale traditional warfare.

Hybrid Warfare involves a combination of traditional military tactics (kinetic warfare) and modern non-kinetic methods, making it a multifaceted approach to conflict. This evolving strategy integrates cyber warfare, disinformation, economic disruption, psychological operations, and advanced technologies. It allows adversaries to engage in a conflict without resorting to full-scale conventional warfare, which can be both costly and risky, particularly in a nuclear age.

Key Components of Hybrid Warfare:

1. Kinetic Warfare (Traditional Military Tactics):

   • This includes conventional combat operations involving armed forces, tanks, aircraft, and artillery. It is the direct use of force to achieve military objectives.

2. Non-Kinetic Warfare (Modern Tactics):

   • Cyber Warfare: Attacks on digital infrastructure, such as hacking into military, government, or civilian networks to disrupt critical services or steal sensitive information.

   • Information Manipulation: The use of disinformation campaigns to influence public opinion, spread propaganda, or create confusion among enemy forces and populations.

   • Economic Disruption: Engaging in actions like sanctions, trade blockades, or cyber-attacks targeting financial institutions to weaken the adversary economically.

   • Psychological Operations (PsyOps): Tactics used to influence the emotions, motives, and objective reasoning of individuals or groups, often through media or strategic communication.

   • Electronic Warfare: Includes techniques like jamming, laser weapons, or electromagnetic waves to disrupt or neutralize enemy technologies such as drones, communications, and radar systems.

   Example:

   • Lebanon's 2006 Hezbollah conflict showed how non-kinetic methods, like the use of remote-controlled devices for pager blasts, caused significant destruction and psychological impact without traditional kinetic warfare tactics.

3. Non-Kinetic Methods and Their Impact:

   • Non-kinetic methods can be deadlier than traditional kinetic warfare in some cases. For example, using jamming or laser weapons to disable drones can render an adversary’s advanced technologies ineffective without firing a single bullet or missile. These methods are especially effective in targeting high-tech assets while maintaining plausible deniability.

Indian Military’s Response:

1. Tri-Services “Future Warfare” Course:

   • This course, designed to train officers (ranging from Major Generals to Majors and their equivalents) in modern warfare techniques, focuses on both kinetic and non-kinetic warfare strategies. The course helps in adapting to new-age tactics, including cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and information operations.

   • Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff recently conducted this course to ensure Indian military personnel are prepared for future threats, which may not always involve traditional battlefield engagement.

2. Year of Technology Absorption (2024):

   • The Indian Army has declared 2024 as the Year of Technology Absorption. The focus is on integrating disruptive technologies into existing systems:

     • Artificial Intelligence (AI) for enhanced decision-making and automation in defense operations.

     • Hypersonic Weapons to counter emerging threats at unmatched speeds.

     • Biotechnology to enhance soldier health, performance, and defensive capabilities.

     • Quantum Technologies to develop secure communications and advanced cryptography, enhancing national security.

   • These technologies are part of a broader effort to modernize India's defense capabilities and align with the challenges posed by hybrid warfare.

Political and Institutional Framework:

1. PSCoD (Public Services Committee on Defence):

   • PSCoD is a Departmentally-Related Standing Committee (DRSCs) functioning under the Lok Sabha. It plays a crucial role in overseeing defense-related matters and ensuring effective defense policies.

   • Composition: It consists of 31 members, with 21 from Lok Sabha and 10 from Rajya Sabha. Members from Lok Sabha are nominated by the Speaker, while those from Rajya Sabha are nominated by the Chairman. This committee contributes to scrutinizing defense policies, resources, and strategies, ensuring alignment with national security needs.

Instances of Hybrid Warfare

• Cold War: Both the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in hybrid warfare through covert operations, sabotage, and propaganda campaigns.

• Russia (Post-2013): Russia’s military chief Valery Gerasimov formalized hybrid warfare strategies in 2013, arguing that the rules of war had changed, with non-traditional tools becoming central to military strategy.

• China: Adopting the “Three Warfares” doctrine, which includes psychological operations, media manipulation, and legal warfare to achieve strategic objectives.

Why is Hybrid Warfare on the Rise?

1. Avoidance of Direct Confrontation: After the Cold War, the rise of nuclear powers led to an increased desire to avoid direct military confrontation. Hybrid warfare offers an alternative.

2. Diminished Military Might: Post-Soviet Russia, with a reduced military budget, resorted to hybrid strategies to achieve strategic goals without the cost of large-scale conventional warfare.

3. Inexpensive War: Conventional warfare is costly, especially in the nuclear age. Hybrid warfare offers an affordable means of influence.

4. Cyber Networks: The proliferation of digital infrastructure offers new opportunities for conflict, including cyberattacks to cripple critical infrastructure.

5. Social Media: The rise of social media has made it easier for adversaries to spread disinformation, influence public opinion, and destabilize governments.

Preparedness for Hybrid Warfare

Given the evolving nature of threats, India must enhance its preparedness to counter hybrid warfare.

1. Evolving Threat Landscape: With growing cyber threats and information warfare tactics, India must adapt its defense strategy to stay ahead of potential adversaries.

2. Deterrence: Demonstrating the ability to counter hybrid warfare strategies can deter aggressors and reduce the likelihood of conflict.

3. Critical Infrastructure Protection: Hybrid warfare often targets vital systems like power grids, communication networks, and financial systems. A well-prepared defense ensures resilience.

India’s Preparedness for Hybrid Warfare

India is already taking significant steps to prepare for hybrid threats:

• Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and Theaterisation: The creation of the CDS in 2019 was a reform aimed at integrating the Army, Navy, and Air Force. This integration helps India respond more efficiently to multi-domain threats, including hybrid warfare.

• Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs): India has reorganized its military into IBGs, fast-response units capable of addressing both conventional and hybrid threats.

• Defence Cyber Agency: Operational since 2021, the Defence Cyber Agency is tasked with tackling cyber threats, especially in national security contexts.

• Make in India: The ‘Make in India’ initiative promotes the domestic production of defense equipment, which strengthens self-sufficiency and reduces dependence on foreign supplies.

• Intelligence Agencies: Agencies like RAW, IB, and NTRO play a critical role in detecting and countering hybrid warfare activities.

• Countering Financing of Terrorism: Stricter laws on anti-money laundering and international cooperation with entities like FATF help combat financing related to hybrid warfare tactics.

• International Cooperation: India collaborates with nations like the United States, Australia, and Japan through the Quad framework, addressing cybersecurity, maritime security, and counterterrorism efforts.

Way Ahead for India

To effectively combat hybrid warfare, India should focus on the following areas:

1. Cybersecurity: Invest in advanced cybersecurity infrastructure, and train specialized personnel capable of responding to evolving cyber threats.

2. Cyber Retaliation and Offensive Operations: Develop offensive cyber capabilities to retaliate against adversaries who use cyberattacks as a tool of hybrid warfare.

3. Strategic Communication: Promote public diplomacy and strategic communication to counter external narratives and disinformation campaigns.

4. Training Programs: Develop training programs for military and intelligence personnel in hybrid warfare tactics, ensuring they are prepared for the diverse nature of modern threats.

5. Collaboration: Increase intelligence-sharing with like-minded nations to improve detection and counteraction of hybrid threats.

Conclusion

Hybrid warfare, blending traditional military tactics with non-conventional methods like cyberattacks and disinformation, is an increasing threat in the modern geopolitical landscape. India’s military reforms, such as the establishment of the CDS, IBGs, and Defence Cyber Agency, along with its focus on international cooperation, put the country in a strong position to defend against these complex threats. However, as technology evolves, India must continue to innovate and adapt its defense strategies to safeguard national security effectively.