Israel-US-Iran Conflict

Recently, tensions in the Middle East escalated dramatically as Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion”, a significant military strike aimed at Iranian nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile capabilities. This was in response to a International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) finding, declaring Iran in breach of a 1974 agreement—marking the first such breach since 2006.

Key Developments in the Conflict:

Israel’s Strikes:

• Operation Rising Lion was activated by Israel after the IAEA’s report. This strike targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and ballistic missile infrastructure.

• Israel also deployed its advanced aerial defense system, ‘Barak Magen’ or 'Lightning Shield', to counter Iranian missile attacks.

Iran’s Retaliation:

• In retaliation, Iran launched ‘Operation True Promise 3’, signaling its military response to Israel’s actions.

U.S. Involvement:

• The United States launched its own military action, “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved precision airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites:

  • Natanz (primary uranium enrichment site),

  • Isfahan,

  • Fordow.

• The U.S. utilized the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a precision-guided bomb capable of penetrating up to 200 feet below ground before detonation, to target Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities.

India’s Response:

• India called for both sides to avoid further escalation and return to diplomatic dialogue.

• India also chose not to engage in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) discussions on the conflict, which condemned Israel’s military strikes.

About Barak Magen (Lightning Shield):

• Barak Magen is a specialized version of the Barak MX missile defense system, primarily designed to protect naval assets from various aerial threats, including drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

• The system works alongside Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems, with future upgrades such as Iron Beam (laser-based defense).

Global Implications of the Conflict:

1. Nuclear Tensions:

• Preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure raise serious concerns about global nuclear non-proliferation norms, particularly the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

• Iran has already suspended cooperation with the IAEA and is contemplating withdrawing from the NPT, which could accelerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

2. Energy and Trade Security:

• Strait of Hormuz: Iran has threatened to close this crucial maritime chokepoint, which is vital for global oil and LNG shipments.

  • 35% of global seaborne oil and 20% of LNG pass through the Strait, and its closure would trigger a surge in global oil prices and shipping costs.

3. Undersea Cable Disruptions:

• The conflict’s escalation could threaten undersea cables that carry internet and communication traffic between regions.

  • In 2024, disruptions were seen in the Red Sea, impacting connectivity across Africa, the Gulf, and South Asia.

4. Regional Power Vacuum:

• The weakening of Iran could create a vacuum of influence in regions like Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, areas where Iran has considerable sway through its Axis of Resistance.

Implications for India:

1. Economic and Trade Impact:

• Iran: India's trade with Iran has drastically dropped from $14 billion (2017) to $1.4 billion (2024), largely due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

• Israel: Trade with Israel has also seen a decline, from $11 billion (2022) to $3.75 billion (2024), due to regional tensions.

2. Geopolitical Balancing Act:

• India faces the complex task of balancing its ties with Israel and Iran, which have adversarial relationships.

  • Israel is vital for India in defense, technology, and counter-terrorism cooperation.

  • Iran is essential for India's energy security and provides strategic access to the Eurasian region.

3. Infrastructure and Connectivity Projects:

• Projects like the Chabahar port (with Iran) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (linking India to Central Asia) are at risk due to escalating tensions.

  • For instance, Iran’s missile attacks on Israel's Haifa port have disrupted trade and connectivity routes vital to India.

4. Geopolitical Realignment:

• The collapse of Iran’s influence in the region could push West Asia towards U.S.-led unipolarity, leaving less space for India and other non-Western powers.

5. Security of Indian Nationals:

• The escalating conflict puts India’s nationals in both Israel (around 28,000 people) and Iran (around 10,765 people) at increased risk.

• India has launched Operation Sindhu, which aims to evacuate its nationals from conflict zones.

Conclusion:

The Israel-Iran conflict, with the involvement of the U.S., poses significant risks not only for the Middle East but also for global security, energy stability, and trade. India, with its delicate balancing act of maintaining relations with both Israel and Iran, faces immense challenges in safeguarding its interests. India’s role as a potential mediator could be crucial in preventing further escalation and steering both parties back to diplomatic negotiations.