China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Trilateral Meeting

China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held their first-ever trilateral meeting during the 6th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum.China took the lead in facilitating the dialogue, aiming to boost regional cooperation and connectivity among these countries.

Focus on Regional Cooperation:

• The trilateral initiative focuses on deepening cooperation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with a focus on extending CPEC to Afghanistan.

• Strengthening regional interconnection networks was also emphasized, which includes infrastructure development and enhanced trade routes.

Emerging Strategic Nexus:

• Analysts point to a growing strategic alliance involving China, Turkey, and Pakistan, especially in light of their coordinated responses during the Pahalgam crisis.

• This signals China’s ambition to create an arc of influence from Afghanistan to the Bay of Bengal, which challenges India’s traditional influence in the region.

• The trilateral initiative focuses on deepening cooperation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with a focus on extending CPEC to Afghanistan.

• Strengthening regional interconnection networks was also emphasized, which includes infrastructure development and enhanced trade routes.

• China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held their first-ever trilateral meeting during the 6th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum.China took the lead in facilitating the dialogue, aiming to boost regional cooperation and connectivity among these countries.

Factors Facilitating These Trilateral Engagements

1. Historical Context:

   • China and Pakistan share longstanding border disputes with India. Their strategic partnership was deepened after the 1962 Sino-India war, with both countries seeing each other as crucial allies.

2. China’s Assertive Regional Policy:

   • China is actively working to expand its geopolitical footprint in South Asia, aiming to achieve regional dominance and secure access to Indian Ocean trade routes.

3. Strategic Balancing Against India:

   • Countries like Bangladesh are leveraging ties with China to assert greater strategic autonomy and counterbalance India’s influence in the region.

4. Infrastructure Diplomacy:

   • China is offering faster and larger infrastructure financing to India’s neighbours, making itself a major player in regional development projects, which challenges India’s traditional role.

Concerns and Implications for India

1. Geostrategic Encirclement:

   • China has already established a presence at strategic ports under its ‘String of Pearls’ Strategy (e.g., Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka).

   • Northeast India’s vulnerability might increase, especially if Bangladesh allows the use of its territory for destabilizing insurgent activities in Northeast India.

2. Undermining India-led Regional Platforms:

   • China’s increasing influence in South Asia could undermine India-backed regional initiatives such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

3. Diminishing Regional Influence:

   • Bangladesh has expressed interest in involving China in the Teesta River project, a longstanding point of friction between India and Bangladesh.

   • This reduces India's influence over critical issues in the region.

4. Impact on India’s Connectivity Initiatives:

   • The promotion of China’s BRI projects might compete with India-led alternatives, such as the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) initiative and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which are designed to enhance connectivity and trade.

India’s Strategy to Counterbalance China’s Influence

1. Strategic Partnerships:

   • India must enhance cooperation with like-minded nations such as Japan and the US to balance Chinese influence in South Asia. The QUAD initiative offers a key platform for this.

2. Development Projects:

   • India should focus on implementing developmental projects across its neighbouring countries to maintain influence. A dedicated cell under the Ministry of External Affairs can coordinate such initiatives to ensure alignment with India’s regional interests.

3. Regional Development Fund:

   • India could explore setting up a regional development fund for connectivity infrastructure under regional frameworks like BIMSTEC, to provide alternative sources of funding and development support.

4. Bilateral and Multilateral Frameworks:

   • India should regularly review its bilateral and multilateral engagements to ensure they are aligned with the changing dynamics of South Asian geopolitics. India’s Act East Policy and regional engagements with countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka must be reinforced.

5. Engagement through RIC:

   • China and Russia have shown interest in reviving the RIC (Russia-India-China) dialogue. India should actively engage through this platform, despite past tensions like the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, to ensure its voice is heard in broader regional discussions.

Rising China’s Influence in South Asia

1. Pakistan:

   • China is Pakistan’s primary defence supplier, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become a major element of their bilateral relationship.

2. Maldives:

   • China-Maldives Friendship Bridge and other infrastructure projects have cemented China’s influence in the Maldives.

3. Nepal:

   • China’s engagement with Nepal includes the Pokhara International Airport and the proposed trans-Himalayan connectivity projects, further strengthening ties.

4. Sri Lanka:

   • China developed the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and leased it for 99 years, increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean region.

5. Bangladesh:

   • China is Bangladesh’s biggest defence supplier and has substantial investments in various infrastructure projects, further increasing its influence.

Conclusion

The China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral meeting signals a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics, with China positioning itself as a dominant regional player. This move challenges India’s traditional influence and presents both opportunities and risks for India. To safeguard its interests and maintain influence, India must adopt a proactive, inclusive, and balanced foreign policy supported by economic, strategic, and cultural outreach. Strengthening regional partnerships, promoting infrastructure development, and reinforcing multilateral engagements will be key to countering China’s growing presence in the region.