Terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)

Why in the News?

Recently, the Jammu division of the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir has seen a concerning increase in terrorist incidents. While the Kashmir Valley has historically experienced high levels of militant activity, the recent uptick in Jammu—an area previously less affected—has raised significant alarm.

Current Situation:

• Rising Terrorist Incidents: Jammu, which had been relatively free from major terror incidents for the past two decades, is now witnessing attacks targeting both pilgrims and security forces.
• Frequency vs. Kashmir Valley: Although incidents in Jammu are fewer compared to the Kashmir Valley, the increase in attacks is alarming given the region’s previous stability.

Reasons for Recent Rise in Terrorism in Jammu:

• Reacting to the Abrogation of Article 370:
• Pakistan aims to reassert its influence in J&K following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which significantly altered the region's political status and diminished Pakistan’s relevance in the region.
• Security Reallocation:
• Following the 2020 Galwan clashes with China, security forces were redirected from Jammu to bolster defenses along the border with China. This reallocation has left Jammu more vulnerable to terrorist activities.
• Strategic Displacement:
• Increased vigilance in the Kashmir Valley due to heightened security measures has prompted militants to exploit the relatively less guarded Jammu region, potentially to regroup or stabilize their presence.

Reasons for Persistence of Terrorism in J&K:

• External Factors:
• State-Sponsored Terrorism: Pakistan is accused of providing logistical support, training, and safe havens to terrorist groups operating in J&K.
• Porous Borders: Difficult terrain along the Line of Control (LoC) and international borders allows militants and weapons to infiltrate despite efforts to seal these areas.
• Global Extremist Influence: International terrorist organizations influence local groups, providing them with ideological frameworks and operational tactics.
• Internal Factors:
• Political Instability: Frequent governance changes and periods of President's Rule create a power vacuum that militant groups exploit.
• Religious and Ethnic Tensions: The diverse makeup of the region, including various religious and ethnic groups, can exacerbate communal tensions.
• State Highhandedness: Policies such as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), internet shutdowns, and arbitrary detentions contribute to local alienation.
• Over Ground Workers (OGWs): These individuals or groups provide non-combat support to militants, such as logistical aid, recruitment, and propaganda. They are difficult to counter due to their community ties and sophisticated use of technology.

History of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)

Ancient and Medieval Period

Early History:

• Kalhana’s Rajatarangini: The earliest historical record of Kashmir, written by the Kashmiri historian Kalhana, provides details about the region's early rulers and culture.
• Pre-1000 AD: Kashmir was an important center of Buddhism and Hinduism. Several dynasties ruled the region, including the Gonanditya, Karkota, and Lohara dynasties.

Hindu and Muslim Rule:

• Hindu Dynasties: The Hindu dynasty rule extended until 1339 AD.
• Shah Mir Dynasty: Shah Mir, the first Muslim ruler, founded the Shah Mir dynasty in 1339. The Muslim rule continued until the Mughal Empire's arrival.
• Mughal Empire: Akbar the Great conquered Kashmir in 1587, integrating it into the Mughal Empire. Subsequent Mughal rulers, including Aurangzeb, expanded the empire further. Kashmir was an integral part of the Indian subcontinent under Mughal rule, but it was not an independent nation.

Pre-Independence Era

Post-Mughal Period:

• Afghan Rule: Following the decline of Mughal power, Kashmir came under the control of Ahmed Shah Abdali and the Afghan Durrani Empire in 1752.
• Sikh Rule: In 1819, the Sikhs, led by Maharaja Ranjit Singh, annexed Kashmir from the Afghans.

Dogra Dynasty and British Involvement:

• Treaty of Amritsar (1846): After Maharaja Ranjit Singh’s death, the British East India Company sought to control Sikh territories. Gulab Singh, a Dogra general, sided with the British. The Treaty of Amritsar, signed on March 16, 1846, ceded Kashmir to Gulab Singh for ₹75 lakh in return for recognizing British suzerainty. The Dogra Dynasty thus ruled Kashmir from then on.
• Dogra Rule: Gulab Singh's successors, including Ranbir Singh and later Hari Singh, continued to rule Kashmir.

Post-Independence Era

The 1947 Context:

• Princely State: In 1947, Jammu and Kashmir was the largest princely state in India. Despite a predominantly Muslim population (approximately 77%), it was ruled by a Hindu king, Maharaja Hari Singh.
• Cultural Diversity: The state was known for its pluralism and cultural diversity. The main regions were:
• Jammu: Predominantly Hindu, consisting of plains and low hills, bordering Punjab.
• Kashmir Valley: Predominantly Sunni Muslim with a significant population of Hindu Kashmiri Pandits. The valley was known for its natural beauty and tourist attractions.
• Ladakh: A hilly region predominantly Buddhist with some Shia Muslim presence, bordering Tibet.
• Gilgit and Baltistan: Thinly populated regions with mostly Shia Muslims, sharing borders with Afghanistan, Sinkiang (China), and close to the former Soviet Union.

Strategic Importance:

• The geo-political location of Jammu and Kashmir made it strategically significant, given its borders with multiple countries and its diverse demographic and cultural composition.

Instrument of Accession and Referendum

Background and Context

August 15, 1947:

• Initial Stance of Maharaja Hari Singh: On the day of Indian independence, Maharaja Hari Singh of Jammu and Kashmir was reluctant to accede to either India or Pakistan. He sought to maintain an independent and neutral stance amid the communal tensions and geopolitical shifts that followed the partition.

Stand-Still Agreement:

• Proposal: Hari Singh proposed a ‘stand-still agreement’ with both India and Pakistan to allow the free movement of people and goods across borders while delaying formal accession.
• Response: Pakistan agreed to the stand-still agreement, but India chose to withhold its decision, opting to observe the situation.

Deterioration of Relations and Crisis

Suspension of Rail Services:

• Action by Pakistan: In September 1947, Pakistan suspended rail services between Sialkot (in Pakistan) and Jammu, worsening the relationship between the princely state and Pakistan.

Invasion and Military Response:

• Pathan Tribesmen Invasion: In October 1947, Pathan tribesmen, with support from the Pakistan Army, invaded Kashmir, exacerbating the crisis.
• Maharaja's Plea for Help: Maharaja Hari Singh sought military assistance from India.

Accession to India

Negotiations and Decision:

• Nehru's Initial Stance: Initially, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was hesitant to support accession without ascertaining the will of the people.
• Mountbatten's Influence: Lord Mountbatten, the last British Viceroy of India, advised that military assistance could only be provided after the state’s formal accession to India.
• Final Decision: Under pressure from various quarters including Sheikh Abdullah and Sardar Patel, Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession on October 26, 1947. This document allowed Indian troops to enter Kashmir and assist in repelling the invaders.

Instrument of Accession:

• Terms: The Instrument of Accession allowed the Indian Parliament to legislate on Defense, Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Communications, while other matters required the concurrence of the State Government.
• Administrative Changes: Hari Singh agreed to appoint Sheikh Abdullah, the leader of the National Conference, as the head of the state’s administration.

Referendum Proposal

Nehru's Idealistic Decision:

• Commitment to Democracy: Nehru proposed holding a referendum on the accession decision once peace and law and order were restored in Kashmir. This was a step to showcase India's commitment to democratic principles and honor Mountbatten’s advice.
• Objective: The referendum was intended to affirm the legitimacy of the accession and demonstrate India’s dedication to democratic values.

Post-Accession Developments

Military Actions:

• Repulsion of Invaders: Indian troops gradually expelled the invaders from the Valley, except for the area currently known as Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) or Azad Kashmir in Pakistan.
• Territorial Division: The conflict led to the territorial division of Jammu and Kashmir, with parts of the region falling under Pakistani control.

Long-Term Impact:

• Ongoing Dispute: The accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India and the subsequent conflict with Pakistan laid the groundwork for ongoing territorial disputes and conflict in the region. The decision to hold a referendum, which was never carried out, continues to be a point of contention and debate.

Kashmir’s UN Connection

UN Involvement:

• UN Mediation: The Kashmir issue was referred to the United Nations following the initial conflict between India and Pakistan. On January 1, 1949, a ceasefire agreement was reached with the intervention of the UN Security Council, resulting in the establishment of the Line of Control (LoC).
• UN Resolution: In 1951, the UN passed a resolution calling for a plebiscite to be held under UN supervision, contingent on Pakistan withdrawing its troops from the area under its control. However, this resolution has not been implemented because Pakistan has not withdrawn its forces from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), leading to the plebiscite never taking place. The UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) continues to monitor the LoC and report ceasefire violations.
• Status on UN Agenda: The dispute over Kashmir remains an unresolved issue on the UN Security Council's agenda. India considers the accession of Jammu and Kashmir to be final and irrevocable, while Pakistan disputes this and raises the issue on international platforms.

Constituent Assembly of Jammu & Kashmir:

• Formation and Affirmation: In 1951, Jammu and Kashmir convened its Constituent Assembly, which reaffirmed the state's accession to India in 1956 and finalized the state's Constitution. This Constitution declared that Jammu and Kashmir is and shall remain an integral part of India.

Shimla Agreement, 1972:

• Post-1971 War Agreement: After the 1971 war with Pakistan, the Shimla Agreement was signed on July 2, 1972. This agreement effectively converted the Line of Control (LoC) into a de facto international border between India and Pakistan. India's primary objective shifted to maintaining the status quo along the LoC rather than seeking the reintegration of PoK.

Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir

Emergence of Insurgency:

• Initial Stages: Following the failed attempts at direct military confrontations in 1947, 1965, and 1971, Pakistan shifted to supporting low-intensity warfare and insurgency movements in Kashmir.
• Catalyst for Insurgency: The disputed 1987 state election was a significant catalyst for the insurgency. The formation of armed insurgent groups and widespread agitation led to an armed insurgency that began in 1989, supported by elements from across the border.

Mujahideen Insurgency:

• Origins: The Mujahideen insurgency was initially fueled by Afghan Mujahideen who came to Kashmir after the Soviet-Afghan war. The Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), formed in 1964 and reorganized in 1971, played a key role in this insurgency with its main demand being Kashmir's independence.
• Shift in Tactics: From 1995 onwards, a faction of JKLF under Yasin Malik renounced violence and sought peaceful methods, but many new militant groups emerged, including Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Al-Badar, and Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (Huji). These groups were supported by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
• Impact on Kashmiri Pandits: The insurgency led to the forced exodus of nearly 400,000 Kashmiri Pandits from the valley, resulting in significant demographic changes. Many Pandits continue to live in refugee camps, unable to return safely.

Human Rights Concerns:

• Accusations Against Indian Forces: Human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW), have accused Indian armed forces of human rights violations in Kashmir, including extrajudicial killings, disappearances, and suppression of freedoms.

Low Intensity War and Its Adoption by ISI

Definition of Low Intensity War: Low intensity war (LIW) is a strategy employed when direct military confrontation is deemed impractical or unlikely to achieve the desired outcome. It encompasses various forms of conflict, including:

• Armed Revolt: Insurgent movements challenging the existing government.
• Guerrilla Warfare: Small-scale, irregular combat by non-state actors against a larger, conventional military.
• Political Revolution: Efforts to overthrow a government or political system through non-traditional means.
• National War of Independence: Movements seeking to establish a new nation or gain independence from a colonial or occupying power.

Why ISI Adopted Low Intensity Warfare: The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan adopted low intensity warfare as a strategy for several reasons:

• Avoiding Full-Scale War: Direct military conflicts with India had proven costly and ineffective in achieving Pakistan’s goals. Low intensity warfare allowed Pakistan to pursue its objectives without engaging in a full-scale conventional war.
• Exploiting Asymmetries: By supporting insurgency and terrorism, Pakistan could exploit the asymmetry between its resources and India’s, leveraging non-state actors to create instability and pressure.
• Undermining India’s Stability: Low intensity warfare aimed to destabilize India internally, particularly in Kashmir, by fostering insurgency and creating social and political turmoil.
• Internationalizing the Issue: By promoting unrest and violence, Pakistan sought to draw international attention to the Kashmir issue, portraying itself as a defender of Muslims and pressing India on global forums.
• Avoiding International Repercussions: Engaging in low intensity warfare rather than direct military action allowed Pakistan to avoid direct international condemnation and maintain plausible deniability.

Modus Operandi of Proxy War in Jammu and Kashmir:

• Malicious Campaigns: Running propaganda campaigns from Pakistan and PoK to damage India’s image in international media.
• Facilitating Terrorist Infiltration: Supporting the infiltration of terrorists into Kashmir to keep Indian security forces engaged.
• Attacking Secular Foundations: Promoting fundamentalist activities to drive out Hindu Pandits and alter the demographic landscape.
• Internationalization of the Issue: Using the unrest to pressure international bodies and frame India as a persecutor of Muslims.
• Increased Terrorist Activities: Targeting Muslim-majority districts in Jammu to escalate tensions.
• Shifting Conflict Intensity: Gradually transitioning from low intensity to high intensity conflict when advantageous, framing it as a struggle for independence.

Key Events and Responses

Civil Unrest in Kashmir, July 2016:

• Burhan Wani’s Death: The killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani triggered widespread protests and unrest. His funeral saw massive attendance and violence erupted across Kashmir.
• Impact: The unrest led to attacks on security forces, suspension of internet services, and displacement of Kashmiri Pandits. The situation resulted in numerous casualties and highlighted the deep-rooted nature of the conflict.

Operation All-Out:

• Objective: Launched in July 2017, Operation All-Out aimed to flush out terrorists from Kashmir. It involved detailed intelligence and mapping of militant hideouts.
• Outcome: The operation targeted members of various terrorist outfits, contributing to a reduction in militant activities.

Pulwama and Balakot Attacks:

• Pulwama Attack (February 14, 2019): A suicide bombing by Jaish-e-Mohammed killed over 40 CRPF soldiers. The attack led to national outrage.
• Balakot Strike (February 26, 2019): In response, India conducted airstrikes on terrorist camps in Balakot, Pakistan, killing over 300 terrorists. This marked a shift in India’s counter-terrorism strategy, moving towards preemptive strikes.

Government of India’s Development-Oriented Programmes in Kashmir

• Prime Minister’s Development Package (PMDP) 2015: An ₹80,068 crore package aimed at infrastructure development, including projects in road, power, education, and tourism sectors.
• Project UDAAN: Designed to provide skills to 40,000 youth over five years.
• Government Representative: Dineshwar Sharma was appointed to facilitate dialogue and address concerns in Jammu & Kashmir.
• Additional Schemes: Included infrastructure development, educational scholarships, and economic incentives to support the region's development.

Present Situation of Jammu and Kashmir:

• Revocation of Special Status: Articles 370 and 35A were abrogated, leading to the reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories: Jammu and Kashmir (with legislature) and Ladakh (without legislature).
• Constitutional Integration: The Constitution of India is now fully applicable to Jammu and Kashmir, impacting its political and administrative framework.

Way Forward:

• Political Measures:
• Free and Fair Elections: Upcoming assembly elections in J&K (scheduled for September-October 2024) can restore local faith in democratic processes.
• Empowering Local Governance: Strengthening local bodies and Panchayats can improve transparency and restore public trust. The successful District Development Council elections in 2020 are an example.
• Security and Intelligence:
• Enhance Vigilance: Utilize the Army’s strengths to dominate strategic positions, increase LoC vigilance, and tighten border security.
• Improve Intelligence: Strengthen both Human Intelligence (HUMINT) and Technological Intelligence (TECHINT) capabilities.
• Border Management:
• Upgrade Infrastructure: Implement recommendations from the Madhukar Gupta Committee to bolster border security, including infrastructure improvements and strategic force deployment.
• Development:
• Invest in Local Development: Focus on infrastructure, education, skill development, and entrepreneurship to create jobs and economic opportunities. The Jammu & Kashmir Industrial Policy 2021-30 aims to transform the region into an industrialized society.
• Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and Counter-Radicalization:
• Civilian-Military Cooperation: Initiatives like Village Defence Guards in Jammu exemplify effective cooperation.
• Counter-Radicalization: Engage local religious leaders and develop community-based programs to counter extremist narratives and monitor online radicalization.
• Diplomatic Efforts:
• International Engagement: Actively engage with the international community to isolate terrorist groups and their sponsors. India’s efforts at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to highlight Pakistan’s role in cross-border terrorism are an example of such diplomacy.

By addressing these multifaceted issues through a combination of political, security, and developmental strategies, India aims to mitigate terrorism and promote stability in Jammu and Kashmir.