The recent Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) represents a major shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Asia, with significant implications for India’s strategic interests. This pact formalizes decades of informal military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the key elements—such as collective defense, joint military mechanisms, and intelligence-sharing—have the potential to alter the regional security dynamics.
A Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) is a landmark deal between two nations aimed at deepening their military cooperation and providing a framework for joint deterrence.
Mutual Defence Clause:
The heart of the SMDA is a mutual defence clause which stipulates that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. This means that both nations are bound to come to each other’s aid if either is targeted by external aggression, strengthening their collective security.
Scope of the Agreement:
The SMDA extends across all military domains, including:
Conventional forces (ground, air, and naval power).
Advisory support for strategic defense and military operations.
Nuclear deterrence, ensuring both nations can coordinate in terms of strategic deterrence capabilities to safeguard their security interests.
Institutionalisation of Security Ties:
This agreement builds upon the 1982 Bilateral Security Cooperation Agreement and draws on decades of military training, arms trade, and troop deployments between the nations. The SMDA institutionalizes a deeper level of security integration and military coordination.
It signifies the formalization of already extensive defence ties, reinforcing long-term commitment between the two countries in terms of strategic cooperation.
Strategic Context:
The SMDA was signed in the wake of rising tensions between Israel and Qatar, signaling a shift in the regional security landscape. For Saudi Arabia, this agreement may also represent a shift towards regional self-reliance, especially amidst increasing doubts about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees in the region.
The agreement reflects a broader trend of countries in the region seeking independent security arrangements to reduce their dependence on traditional powers like the U.S.
Economic Angle:
Beyond military cooperation, the SMDA provides significant economic leverage for both nations. For Pakistan, this agreement helps secure Saudi financial support to alleviate its struggling economy, ensuring continued arms procurement and vital energy supplies.
Saudi Arabia stands to benefit from enhanced security arrangements and potential access to Pakistan’s military expertise and strategic positioning, helping to reinforce its position as a regional power.
Historical Ties: The defense pact revives long-standing ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Historically, Saudi Arabia has been a key ally for Pakistan, and this formalization strengthens Pakistan’s position in the region.
Anti-India Narratives: This closer alignment could enable Pakistan to more effectively push its anti-India agenda, particularly regarding Kashmir, within multilateral forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Saudi Arabia's influence in the Islamic world could be leveraged by Pakistan to further isolate India on global platforms.
Energy Security: India’s reliance on Saudi Arabia for crude oil imports makes the deeper Saudi-Pakistan alliance a potential concern for India’s energy security. A strategic alignment between Riyadh and Islamabad could complicate commercial ties, especially if Saudi Arabia begins to prioritize Pakistan’s security interests over its ties with India.
Diaspora: India has a large 2.6 million-strong diaspora in Saudi Arabia, which is a significant source of remittances. Any geopolitical shifts may affect the well-being and status of the Indian community in the Kingdom, especially if tensions between the two countries escalate.
Diplomatic Setback: India has long relied on international pressure to isolate Pakistan in the context of terrorism. Saudi Arabia's deeper partnership with Pakistan may undermine India’s efforts to gain broader global support for its stance on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Although India and Saudi Arabia have strengthened counter-terrorism cooperation, the new strategic alignment between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could dilute Riyadh’s support for India’s diplomatic initiatives on terrorism and militancy.
Arms Race in Advanced Technologies: Saudi Arabia’s financial support to Pakistan could enable Pakistan to accelerate its military modernization. With the backing of countries like Turkey and China, Pakistan could acquire advanced military technologies, including drones, hypersonic missiles, and cyber warfare capabilities. This would pose a direct challenge to India’s military preparedness and likely fuel an arms race in the region, especially in areas like AI, space warfare, and electronic warfare.
Strategic Parity: This could push India to ramp up its own military modernization and defense spending, placing significant pressure on the nation’s defense budget.
Despite the new Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, Saudi Arabia remains an important strategic partner for India, especially in the following areas:
Saudi Arabia is a critical energy partner for India, as it is one of the largest suppliers of crude oil to India. Maintaining stable energy supplies from Saudi Arabia is crucial for India’s economic growth and energy security.
India and Saudi Arabia enjoy a robust economic relationship. Saudi Arabia is India’s second-largest trade partner, and India ranks as Saudi Arabia’s fifth-largest trade partner.
Indian investments in Saudi Arabia are growing, with India investing over USD 3 billion in August 2023. The economic ties, along with joint investments in green energy, technology, and infrastructure, are key drivers for bilateral cooperation.
India and Saudi Arabia have deepened their defense cooperation through joint military exercises like EX-SADA TANSEEQ (land forces) and Al Mohed Al Hindi (naval). This cooperation aims to improve interoperability and strengthen regional security, particularly concerning threats from regional powers like Iran.
Saudi Arabia plays a key role in India’s strategic objectives in the region, especially the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This corridor is critical for countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and enhancing regional connectivity.
India’s diaspora in Saudi Arabia, particularly in the fields of healthcare, construction, and hospitality, serves as a vital bridge between the two nations. The soft power that India wields through its cultural diplomacy, such as Yoga and spiritual exchanges, further strengthens people-to-people ties.
India should focus on strengthening its diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia through economic engagement, especially by emphasizing the energy security partnership, investments, and future projects in renewables and technology.
India must steer its relationship with Saudi Arabia away from the Pakistan prism and promote multilateral cooperation, especially in areas like counter-terrorism, economic collaboration, and regional security.
The new Saudi-Pakistan defense pact underscores the need for India to deepen its relationship with Iran, particularly through initiatives like the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
India should leverage its ties with Iran to secure access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, while also ensuring energy security through Iran’s natural gas and energy supplies.
India must diversify its Gulf strategy by strengthening ties with other Gulf nations, particularly the UAE and Qatar. This can be achieved through trade deals, defense cooperation, and LNG supplies.
A balanced relationship with Iran, even with its geopolitical complexities, will help India maintain regional equilibrium and manage its interests effectively.
Platforms like I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-US) can be used to strengthen India’s role as a non-threatening stabilizing force in the region. This also helps mitigate the effects of the Saudi-Pakistan strategic alignment on India’s influence in the Gulf and broader Middle East.
The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact is a strategic shift that poses several challenges to India’s regional diplomacy. However, India’s robust economic ties with Saudi Arabia, coupled with growing defense cooperation, provide significant leverage. To safeguard its interests, India must maintain strong diplomatic ties with Riyadh, expand its influence in the Gulf by engaging other regional players like UAE and Qatar, and ensure that its relationship with Iran remains pragmatic and mutually beneficial. By doing so, India can mitigate the impact of the Saudi-Pakistan pact while navigating the multipolar and fluid geopolitics of the region
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In every Lecture. Director Sir will provide conceptual understanding with around 800 Mindmaps.
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