India's Nuclear Doctrine

India's celebration of 25 years of its nuclear doctrine marks a significant milestone in its defense and strategic posture. India's nuclear doctrine, established after its 1998 nuclear tests, has shaped its approach to nuclear deterrence, security, and disarmament on the global stage.

Key Features of India's Nuclear Doctrine:

• Credible Minimum Deterrent: India aims to maintain a nuclear arsenal that is minimal but sufficient to deter adversaries.
• No First Use (NFU): India pledges not to initiate a nuclear strike. Nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation to a nuclear attack on its territory or forces.
• Massive Retaliation (MAD): In response to any nuclear first strike, India will retaliate massively to cause unacceptable damage to the adversary.
• Non-use Against Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS): India commits to not using nuclear weapons against states that do not possess them.
• Nuclear Disarmament Goal: India supports the global goal of a nuclear weapon-free world through a verifiable and non-discriminatory process.
• Nuclear Command Authority (NCA):
• Political Council: Chaired by the Prime Minister, it holds the sole authority to approve nuclear weapons use.
• Executive Council: Led by the National Security Advisor, it assists the Political Council in decision-making and executes its directives.
• CBW Retaliation Option: India reserves the right to retaliate with nuclear weapons in the event of a major chemical or biological attack.
• Non-Proliferation Measures: India emphasizes strict control over the export of nuclear and missile-related materials and technologies. It also supports negotiations on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT).
• Nuclear Test Moratorium: India has upheld a self-imposed moratorium on conducting further nuclear tests.

India’s Present Nuclear Standing in the Global Nuclear Discourse:

1. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT):

• The CTBT prohibits all nuclear explosions, both civilian and military.
• India's Position: India has not signed the CTBT, primarily because the treaty lacks a concrete commitment to time-bound nuclear disarmament by nuclear-armed states. India argues that this undermines its call for global nuclear disarmament.

2. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – 1968:

• The NPT aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promotes three pillars: non-proliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
• India's Position: India refused to sign the NPT, contending that the treaty is discriminatory as it divides the world into "nuclear haves" (those who had nuclear weapons before 1967) and "nuclear have-nots." India believes this framework legitimizes the possession of nuclear weapons by a few countries while denying others the same right, without equal emphasis on disarmament.

3. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW):

• The TPNW is the first legally binding treaty that comprehensively bans the use, development, production, and stockpiling of nuclear weapons.
• India's Position: India has not signed the TPNW, citing concerns that the treaty does not contribute to the development of customary international law, nor does it set new standards that address India's security concerns or the existing global nuclear order. India's approach remains focused on gradual disarmament through verifiable and non-discriminatory measures.

4. Global Multilateral Export Control Regimes:

These regimes aim to prevent the proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies through coordinated export controls.

• India is a Member of:
• Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR): India joined in 2016. The MTCR focuses on limiting the spread of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology capable of carrying a payload of at least 500 kg over a range of 300 km.
• Wassenaar Arrangement: India joined in 2017. This regime controls the export of conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies.
• Australia Group: India joined in 2018. This group aims to prevent the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons by controlling the export of related materials and technologies.
• India is Not a Member of:
• Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG): The NSG was established in 1974 in response to India's first nuclear test, with the aim of preventing the export of nuclear technology for weapon-making. India has sought membership since 2010, but its bid has been blocked by certain member states, notably China, due to India not being a signatory to the NPT.

Key Factors Behind India’s Nuclear Doctrine:

• Strategic Restraint: The NFU policy aligns with India’s broader philosophy of strategic restraint, avoiding escalation and maintaining stability in the region.
• International Standing: NFU enhances India’s global image as a responsible nuclear power, facilitating agreements for civil nuclear cooperation and gaining accommodation in global nuclear governance regimes like the MTCR, Wassenaar Arrangement, and Australia Group.
• Managing Complex Threats: India's nuclear doctrine aims to manage its security challenges from both Pakistan and China. While concerns about Pakistan’s use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) exist, the NFU doctrine contributes to reducing tensions with China by avoiding unnecessary provocations.
• Avoiding an Arms Race: NFU allows India to avoid engaging in a costly and potentially destabilizing arms race with its neighbours, especially in the context of nuclear arms and missile defense systems.

Strengthening India’s Nuclear Doctrine

India's nuclear doctrine has provided a stable foundation for its strategic deterrence, but with evolving geopolitical dynamics and technological advancements, it could be further enhanced for greater efficacy and adaptability.

1. Dedicated Defense Technology Programs:

• Integrated Defence Technology Programs: Similar to the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP), India could invest in targeted defense technology initiatives aimed at modernizing its nuclear delivery systems, missile defenses, and command and control infrastructure.
• Focus on Technological Advancements: Programs should ensure continuous technological development in missile technology, surveillance, artificial intelligence, and cyber capabilities to maintain credible deterrence and nuclear readiness.

2. Flexibility on ‘Massive Retaliation’:

• Introducing Ambiguity on Retaliation: India's current doctrine of "massive retaliation" may limit flexibility in case of lower-level nuclear threats like Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs). To avoid escalating a limited nuclear exchange into a full-scale war, India could introduce controlled ambiguity in its retaliatory options. This would give political and military leaders more maneuvering space without committing to an all-or-nothing response.
• Proportional Responses: Flexibility could allow India to retaliate proportionally in response to limited nuclear strikes or chemical/biological attacks, thus preventing unnecessary escalation while maintaining credible deterrence.

3. Periodic Review in Light of Geopolitical Changes:

• Regular Doctrinal Review: Like the United States and Russia, India should periodically review its nuclear doctrine in light of evolving global and regional security dynamics. Such reviews could adapt the doctrine to emerging threats, technologies, and strategic partnerships.
• Geopolitical Adjustments: The intensification of China-Pakistan relations and their growing strategic cooperation with Russia, combined with increasing instability in regions like the Indo-Pacific, warrants a reevaluation of India's security posture and nuclear doctrine.

4. Aligning with Evolving Foreign Policy:

• Coherence with Foreign Policy Goals: India’s nuclear doctrine should remain synchronized with its broader foreign policy objectives, especially in light of its growing global stature, shifting alliances, and participation in multilateral frameworks.
• Addressing the China-Pakistan Nexus: India's nuclear posture needs to factor in the evolving military and nuclear relationship between China and Pakistan, especially as both countries enhance their strategic ties, with China emerging as a key player in Pakistan’s nuclear and defense programs.

5. Promoting Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Leadership:

• Engagement in Multilateral Forums: India can leverage its status as a responsible nuclear power to lead discussions on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation at platforms like the United Nations, Conference on Disarmament, and Nuclear Security Summits. India's voice can reflect the concerns of non-NPT states while advocating for balanced and non-discriminatory disarmament frameworks.
• Encouraging No First Use (NFU) Adoption: India, along with China, remains a rare advocate of NFU among nuclear states. India could lead efforts to promote the adoption of NFU policies globally, emphasizing that NFU enhances stability and reduces the risk of nuclear conflict. Open dialogues with neighboring countries, especially Pakistan, on adopting NFU could serve as confidence-building measures to reduce nuclear tensions.

6. Confidence-Building and Transparency:

• Bilateral/Multilateral Dialogues: To mitigate regional nuclear tensions, India can initiate confidence-building measures through dialogues with nuclear-armed neighbors such as Pakistan and China. These discussions could focus on transparency regarding nuclear doctrines and avoidance of miscalculation during crises.
• Strengthening Communication Channels: Ensuring clear lines of communication with nuclear adversaries could reduce the risks of accidental or unintentional escalation, particularly during military standoffs.

7. Developing Missile Defense and Second-Strike Capabilities:

• Missile Defense Systems: Strengthening India’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) capability would help mitigate the risks of a first strike. While costly, an advanced BMD system could enhance deterrence by denying adversaries confidence in a successful first strike.
• Strengthening Second-Strike Capability: Further investment in sea-based deterrents, such as nuclear-armed submarines, would reinforce India's second-strike capability, providing greater assurance of retaliation and thus maintaining the credibility of its deterrence.

By incorporating these adjustments, India can strengthen its nuclear doctrine to better address current and future challenges while reinforcing its position as a responsible nuclear power committed to global stability and non-proliferation.

India's Three-Stage Nuclear Power Programme:

India's three-stage nuclear power programme, conceptualized by Dr. Homi Bhabha in the 1950s, is a visionary roadmap aimed at achieving long-term energy self-sufficiency by tapping into the country’s substantial uranium and thorium reserves. The programme is structured to maximize the use of these resources over time through advanced nuclear technologies.

Stage 1: Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs)

• Fuel: Natural uranium (U-238) serves as the fuel.
• Process: PHWRs use natural uranium as fuel and heavy water as both a moderator and coolant.
• Objective: The main goal is to generate energy while producing plutonium (Pu-239) as a by-product, which can be used in the second stage of the programme.
• Status: India has successfully developed and operates several PHWRs, making significant progress in this stage.

In the First Stage of India's nuclear power program, Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) were used with natural uranium as the fuel. These reactors also produced plutonium-239 as a byproduct, which would be used in the second stage of the program. Here’s an outline of why PHWRs were chosen and their advantages and disadvantages:

Reasons for Selecting PHWRs:

• Natural Uranium Oxide as Fuel: PHWRs could use natural uranium, eliminating the need for enrichment processes.
• Maximizing Uranium Use: They made efficient use of mined uranium, making the best out of limited resources.
• Self-Sufficient Technology: India sought to establish an independent, indigenous nuclear technology without relying on external resources for enrichment.

Advantages:

• No Need for Uranium Enrichment: Since natural uranium can be burned directly in PHWRs, no enrichment is necessary.
• Efficient Uranium Utilization: As there’s no enrichment, no depleted uranium tails are produced, making the process more resource-efficient.
• Continuous Refueling: PHWRs allow refueling without shutting down the reactor, reducing downtime and ensuring steady power generation.

Disadvantages:

• Need for Heavy Water: The reactor requires highly pure heavy water (D₂O), which demands carefully sealed and monitored systems to prevent leakage or contamination.
• Tritium Production: Heavy water absorbs neutrons, leading to the formation of tritium (H-3), a low-level radioactive substance. PHWRs produce more tritium than light-water reactors due to the use of heavy water.

Stage 2: Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs)

• Fuel: Mixed oxide (MOX) fuel, which uses plutonium from Stage 1, mixed with depleted uranium.
• Process: Fast breeder reactors generate energy while breeding more plutonium from uranium-238 and also producing fissile material from thorium.
• Objective: To produce energy and convert U-238 into more Pu-239, as well as starting the conversion of thorium into fissile uranium-233, laying the groundwork for Stage 3.
• Status: India is currently in the second stage, with its first Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) under construction at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu.

The Second Stage of India's nuclear power program focuses on Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) that use plutonium-239-based fuel. These reactors can generate more fissile material than they consume, enabling efficient use of the uranium and plutonium resources from the First Stage. Additionally, thorium is introduced into the reactor, which eventually breeds uranium-233, crucial for the Third Stage of the program.

Key Elements of Stage 2:

• Plutonium-239 Mixed-Oxide (MOX) Fuel: FBRs are designed to use plutonium-239, produced in the first stage, along with uranium or thorium as fuel.
• Breeding Uranium-233: Thorium, which is abundant in India, is used in the reactor to create uranium-233, essential for the future third-stage reactors.

Advantages:

• Safe and Efficient: FBRs offer a high level of efficiency and energy output while reusing waste material, making them relatively safe when operated properly.
• Green Energy Source: FBRs recycle the waste from the first stage, reducing nuclear waste and making the process more sustainable.
• Efficient Uranium Utilization: By using plutonium and thorium, FBRs make highly efficient use of the uranium mined and extend the lifecycle of the nuclear fuel.

Disadvantages:

• Sodium-Cooled Reactors: FBRs are cooled by liquid sodium, which reacts explosively when in contact with air or water. A small leak in the sodium cooling system can lead to severe fire hazards.
• Weaker Containment Dome: FBRs typically have a containment dome that is not as robust as those used in other types of reactors, potentially increasing risks in the event of a coolant leak or accident.

Stage 3: Thorium-Based Reactors

• Fuel: Thorium-232 converted into uranium-233.
• Process: Thorium-232, which is abundant in India, is used to produce fissile uranium-233, which can then be used to fuel reactors. This process will allow India to tap into its vast thorium reserves.
• Objective: Achieving energy independence by harnessing the full potential of India's thorium reserves.
• Status: Research and development for thorium reactors are ongoing, with some experimental reactors already in operation.

NITI Aayog's Proposal: Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

In line with India’s energy needs and the modernization of its power sector, the NITI Aayog has proposed that the government focus on developing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These reactors have the potential to:

• Flexibility and Efficiency: SMRs are more flexible in terms of siting and construction time, and they require lower upfront investment compared to traditional large nuclear reactors.
• Private Investment: NITI Aayog encourages private investment in SMRs to drive innovation and development in the nuclear sector.
• Replacement of Ageing Thermal Plants: SMRs can serve as efficient replacements for aging coal-fired power plants, providing a cleaner and more sustainable energy alternative.

Significance of Thorium Reserves for India's Energy Future:

• India has the world’s largest reserves of thorium, particularly in the monazite sands of Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
• Transitioning to thorium-based reactors in Stage 3 of the nuclear programme could ensure long-term energy independence for India, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and foreign uranium imports.