ASEAN Centrality

Why in the News?

ASEAN’s central role in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly under strain due to rising great-power rivalry, shifting global trade dynamics, and the evolving regional order. These pressures highlight the need for bold reforms and stronger partnerships within the region, particularly with key players like India, China, and the US.

What is ASEAN?

1. Genesis and Purpose:

   • Established in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) aims to:

     • Accelerate regional economic and cultural progress,

     • Promote peace, stability, and the rule of law,

     • Foster collaboration across areas like education, trade, agriculture, and industry.

2. ASEAN Member States:

   • ASEAN consists of 10 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The founding members are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

3. ASEAN Summit:

   • The ASEAN Summit is the highest policy-making body, consisting of Heads of State or Government from all member nations.

4. Primary Goal (ASEAN Charter):

   • The ASEAN Charter (Article 1.15) emphasizes the grouping's primary goal to uphold ASEAN centrality and play an active role as the main driving force in external relations and cooperation.

Relevance of ASEAN Centrality in the Region

1. Security and Stability:

   • ASEAN provides essential forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) to engage in security dialogue. These platforms include both ASEAN members and external powers, ensuring open channels for maritime security, defence collaboration, and regional stability.

2. Economic Integration:

   • ASEAN led the formation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement that strengthens economic ties across the Asia-Pacific region, facilitating better market access for member states and external partners.

3. Norm-Building:

   • Initiatives like the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), which initially targeted Southeast Asian nations, have evolved into regional frameworks, with major global powers like China, the US, and Russia now signatories, promoting peaceful and cooperative behavior in the region.

Threats to ASEAN Centrality

1. Great-Power Rivalry:

   • The US-China rivalry risks marginalizing ASEAN, as external powers push competing regional strategies (e.g., Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) vs. Indo-Pacific Strategy). This fragmentation could undermine ASEAN's unity and leadership role.

2. US Tariffs and Trade Tensions:

   • The trade wars and tariffs imposed by the US destabilize the global trade system, which is crucial for ASEAN's export-driven economies, leading to economic uncertainty.

3. Overlapping Regional Architectures:

   • New minilateral groupings like QUAD (US, Japan, India, Australia) and AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) challenge ASEAN’s regional security frameworks like the East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). These newer arrangements often sideline ASEAN's role as the leading institution in regional security discussions.

4. Internal Divisions:

   • ASEAN faces internal divisions, such as Vietnam’s advocacy for confronting China's actions in the South China Sea, while Cambodia and Laos have increasingly become dependent on Chinese investments, leading to challenges in forming a unified approach to key regional issues.

5. Credibility Crisis:

   • ASEAN has struggled to enforce its Five-Point Consensus on the Myanmar crisis, which undermines its credibility as a regional leader in addressing conflicts and promoting stability. This allows external powers to intervene in the Indo-Pacific more freely.

6. Weak Institutional Capacity:

   • The ASEAN Secretariat faces limitations in terms of resources and capacity, which hampers the implementation of its ambitious regional initiatives and undermines its ability to assert its centrality effectively.

Way Forward to Strengthen ASEAN Centrality

1. Upgrade ASEAN’s Institutional Capacity:

   • ASEAN needs to strengthen its institutional framework to become more responsive and effective in addressing regional challenges. The ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and the ASEAN Political-Security Community Strategic Plan (2026–2030) are important steps in this direction.

2. Cooperate with Like-minded Partners:

   • ASEAN should deepen its relationships with like-minded partners such as the European Union, which is keen to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific. This includes negotiating Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and exploring new areas of cooperation such as climate change and regional connectivity.

3. Formal Consultation Mechanisms with Minilateral Groupings:

   • ASEAN should establish formal consultation mechanisms with emerging minilateral groupings like QUAD, AUKUS, and others. Proposing joint initiatives on common concerns like maritime security, disaster response, and sustainable development could help in strengthening ASEAN’s central role in the regional order.

4. Closer Partnership with India:

   • India shares ASEAN’s interests in promoting regional trade, ensuring economic diversification, and maintaining stability. India-ASEAN cooperation in areas like maritime security, disaster response, and the blue economy presents significant opportunities for deepened collaboration.

How India Can Address the Shift in ASEAN Centrality

1. Synchronize Efforts:

   • India should align its Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) with ASEAN’s ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP). Both frameworks should cooperate on shared Indo-Pacific concerns, particularly maritime security, disaster relief, and blue economy initiatives.

2. Explore Synergies with Sub-Regional Frameworks:

   • India can explore synergies with other sub-regional frameworks such as:

     • Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA),

     • Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC),

     • Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT).

   • These groupings can complement ASEAN’s objectives and further India’s influence in the region.

3. Expedite ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA):

   • A review of the AITIGA (ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement) should be expedited to make it more effective, user-friendly, and trade-facilitative. Simplifying procedures will encourage greater business engagement between India and ASEAN countries.

4. Implement ASEAN-India Tourism Cooperation Plan:

   • The ASEAN-India Tourism Cooperation Work Plan (2023-2027) can help expand people-to-people connections, bolster regional tourism, and create shared training programs for capacity building in the tourism sector.

Conclusion:

ASEAN has long been the cornerstone of Southeast Asian stability, security, and economic integration. However, the rise of competing regional and global powers, coupled with internal challenges, threatens its centrality in the evolving Indo-Pacific order. To maintain its leadership, ASEAN must adapt, strengthen institutional frameworks, and forge deeper partnerships, both within the region and with global powers. For India, strengthening ties with ASEAN is crucial, especially in areas like trade, maritime security, and the blue economy, ensuring a stable and cooperative Indo-Pacific. By fostering synergies with ASEAN, India can help reaffirm the grouping’s pivotal role in the region's future