China is constructing a massive 60,000 MW hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo River (called the Brahmaputra in India and Jamuna in Bangladesh), located in Tibet near Gelling in Arunachal Pradesh. This mega-project, consisting of 5 cascade dams, was announced in 2021 and is expected to be completed by the 2030s. Once operational, it will be three times more powerful than the world’s largest hydropower station, the Three Gorges Dam.
The project is located in a seismically active zone where the Indian and Eurasian plates meet. This makes the region highly vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, and flash floods.
The Three Gorges Dam in China displaced over 1.3 million people due to similar ecological disruptions, and the Brahmaputra project could cause large-scale displacement in India’s northeastern states as well.
Water Bomb: There are concerns that China could use the dam as a geopolitical tool, turning it into a "water bomb" that can flood downstream areas in India, potentially weaponizing water flow to exert pressure, especially after India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the 2016 Pahalgam terror attack.
The Brahmaputra River is a lifeline for agriculture, livelihoods, and biodiversity in India, particularly in states like Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Any sudden water release or diversion by China could devastate ecosystems and agricultural activities in these tribal regions.
Tribal Vulnerability: The Siang belt, home to the Adi tribe, could face disruptions to its water supply and ecological stability, threatening the region's indigenous cultures and livelihoods.
Traditional flood management systems used by indigenous communities in the northeastern states could be undermined by artificial flow regulation. This will make these communities more vulnerable to climate extremes and disrupt centuries-old practices.
Unilateral Actions: China’s actions are concerning as it is not a signatory to any international water-sharing treaty with India. As the upstream riparian country, China is disregarding India's riparian rights and unilaterally altering the river’s flow.
Diplomatic Challenges: With China refusing to share hydrological data and not cooperating on water-sharing, India faces major diplomatic hurdles in assessing the impacts of these dams on the downstream flow.
The dam could significantly impact irrigation, flood regulation, and hydropower generation in India’s northeastern states, thereby threatening food security, water security, and energy security in the region.
India is planning its own hydropower project in Arunachal Pradesh, known as the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, with a capacity of 11.2 GW. This is seen as a strategic response to China’s upstream dams, helping to regulate floods caused by the flow variations from Chinese dams.
Despite the Brahmaputra Basin being 34% located in India, the country contributes over 80% of the river's flow, thanks to the heavy rainfall (2,371 mm) and snowmelt in the region, compared to Tibet’s 300 mm.
Arunachal Pradesh and Assam contribute about 30% of the water resources and 41% of the hydropower potential. Arunachal Pradesh plays a vital role in the flow and power generation of the Brahmaputra.
Manas-Sankosh-Teesta-Ganga Link: This ambitious project aims to connect the Manas River (a Brahmaputra tributary) to the Ganga via Sankosh and Teesta rivers.
Jogighopa-Teesta-Farakka Link: This proposal involves linking the Brahmaputra at Jogighopa Barrage to the Ganga at Farakka, further improving water management in the region.
India has raised concerns with China regarding the impact of Chinese infrastructure on downstream water flows. Bilateral talks have been held to address these issues, with water-sharing and border disengagement being key topics of discussion.
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) like the resumption of tourist visas and the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after five years aim to ease tensions and facilitate cooperation between the two countries.
India should fast-track the Upper Siang Hydropower Project in Arunachal Pradesh, which includes a 300-meter-high dam that can absorb variations in upstream water flow. Expanding storage capacity across the Brahmaputra basin will also help mitigate flooding and seasonal water stress caused by Chinese interventions.
A scientific assessment of the ecological and geopolitical risks posed by China’s dam-building spree is essential. Strengthening institutional capabilities for real-time data modelling and predictive analytics will help India respond effectively to potential challenges related to water weaponization.
India can operationalize the National Water Development Agency (NWDA)’s interlinking plans, which would involve connecting Brahmaputra tributaries to the Ganga basin to redirect excess water to drought-prone regions. Inland channel systems could also help manage monsoon overflow and reduce flood risks.
Diplomatic Engagement: India needs to press China for detailed real-time hydrological data to assess the ongoing and potential impacts of the dams on downstream countries. This could include reactivating and renewing the Brahmaputra MoU, which expired in June 2023, to ensure continuous data sharing.
Regional Coordination: Strengthening cooperation with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Myanmar is vital for joint disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and collective water governance across the transboundary basin.
Origin: The Brahmaputra originates from the Chemayungdung Glacier near Mansarovar Lake in Tibet (China), where it is called the Yarlung Tsangpo.
Course: The river flows through Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang (or Dihang), and then through Assam before entering Bangladesh as the Jamuna, eventually merging with the Ganga (Padma) and the Meghna River, draining into the Bay of Bengal.
Basin: The Brahmaputra Basin spans Tibet, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh, and is crucial for the water resources, energy generation, and ecology of the entire region.
Ecological Significance: The basin supports critical biodiversity zones, including Kaziranga and Manas National Parks, and is home to Majuli, the world’s largest river island.
The ongoing hydropower project on the Brahmaputra presents both challenges and opportunities for India, especially regarding water security, environmental concerns, and diplomatic negotiations with China. The Brahmaputra’s vital role in agriculture, power generation, and ecosystems makes it a crucial area for future water-sharing agreements and regional cooperation.
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