Weak Monsoon in India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal monsoon precipitation, with rainfall estimated to be about 43% below normal in some regions. The weak rainfall has been attributed to the delayed advance of the monsoon, the gradual emergence of El Niño conditions, weak monsoon circulation, and the absence of favourable weather systems, raising concerns over agriculture, water security, and economic growth.

About the Indian Monsoon

The Indian Monsoon refers to the seasonal reversal of winds, primarily caused by the differential heating and cooling of land and sea. During summer, the Indian landmass heats up faster than the surrounding oceans, creating a low-pressure area that draws moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean, resulting in widespread rainfall. During winter, the process reverses, and winds blow from land to sea.

The monsoon is the backbone of India's agriculture, water resources, food security, and overall economy, as nearly half of the country's cultivated land still depends directly on rainfall.

Types of Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon

The Southwest Monsoon, occurring from June to September, contributes nearly 75% of India's annual rainfall. It is the principal rainy season and supports Kharif agriculture, replenishes rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater, and sustains hydropower generation.

Northeast (Retreating) Monsoon

The Northeast Monsoon, occurring between October and December, mainly affects the southeastern coast, particularly Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Kerala. It provides the majority of annual rainfall to Tamil Nadu and is crucial for Rabi cultivation in the region.

Long Period Average (LPA)

The Long Period Average (LPA) is the benchmark used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to assess monsoon performance. It represents the average rainfall received over a 50-year reference period, allowing meteorologists to compare current rainfall with long-term climatic conditions.

IMD Classification of Monsoon Performance

Reasons Behind the Weak Monsoon

Delayed Impact of El Niño

The El Niño phenomenon develops over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and generally affects the Indian monsoon with a lag of about one month. El Niño weakens the Walker Circulation, thereby reducing the transport of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent and suppressing cloud formation and rainfall. However, according to IMD, the rainfall deficit during early June cannot be attributed entirely to El Niño because its influence had not fully developed.

Unfavourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a moving system of clouds, rainfall, winds, and atmospheric pressure that travels eastward along the equator.

During most of June, the favourable phase of the MJO remained absent over India. Consequently, atmospheric convection weakened, resulting in suppressed cloud formation and reduced rainfall over large parts of the country.

Weak Monsoon Circulation

The overall monsoon circulation remained weak due to poor cross-equatorial winds from the Indian Ocean, inadequate moisture transport from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and the slow advancement of the monsoon into northern and western India.

Absence of Low-Pressure Systems

Indian monsoon rainfall depends heavily on low-pressure systems and depressions that form over the Bay of Bengal. During June, these weather systems either failed to develop or remained too weak to distribute rainfall effectively, resulting in uneven precipitation across the country.

Increasing Climate Variability

Climate change has significantly increased intra-seasonal rainfall variability, making rainfall more erratic. Even years with near-normal total rainfall often experience severe regional droughts, cloudbursts, and prolonged dry spells due to the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall.

Implications of a Weak Monsoon

Agricultural Stress

Agriculture remains highly dependent on rainfall despite expanding irrigation infrastructure. A weak monsoon delays Kharif sowing, reduces crop yields of rice, pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals, and increases farmers' dependence on costly irrigation, thereby raising cultivation expenses.

Threat to Food Security and Inflation

Lower agricultural production reduces market supplies, leading to higher food prices and increased inflation. Rising food inflation adversely affects poor households and weakens nutritional security across the country.

Water Scarcity

Deficient rainfall lowers groundwater recharge, reduces reservoir storage, and decreases the availability of drinking water. Several drought-prone regions may require emergency water supply measures, including transportation of drinking water by tankers.

Economic Impact

Weak monsoons reduce rural incomes, lower agricultural employment, and weaken demand for consumer goods in rural markets. Since agriculture continues to contribute significantly to India's economy, prolonged rainfall deficits can slow overall economic growth.

Reduced Hydropower Generation

Lower reservoir levels adversely affect hydroelectric power generation, while simultaneously reducing water availability for irrigation, industries, and urban consumption.

Environmental Consequences

Insufficient rainfall increases the frequency of forest fires, accelerates land degradation, reduces wetland health, and places additional stress on rivers, lakes, and biodiversity.

India's Preparedness for Weak Monsoons

Advanced Weather Forecasting

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides extended-range forecasts, district-level rainfall predictions, and early warning systems that enable governments and farmers to make informed decisions regarding crop planning and irrigation.

District-Level Vulnerability Assessment

The government has identified nearly 315 vulnerable districts based on irrigation coverage.

• 111 high-priority districts have irrigation coverage below 25%.

• 76 medium-priority districts have irrigation coverage between 25% and 50%.

• 128 low-priority districts possess comparatively better irrigation infrastructure.

This classification helps governments implement region-specific contingency measures.

Contingency Crop Planning

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) prepares district-specific contingency plans that promote drought-resistant crop varieties, short-duration seeds, and alternative cropping systems suitable for rainfall-deficient conditions.

Water Conservation Measures

Programmes such as MGNREGS support the construction of farm ponds, check dams, watershed projects, and rainwater harvesting structures, improving local water security and groundwater recharge.

Expansion of Irrigation

The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) promotes micro-irrigation, Per Drop More Crop, and efficient command area development, thereby reducing agriculture's dependence on rainfall.

Renewable Energy Expansion

India's rapid expansion of solar and wind energy has reduced dependence on hydropower, helping maintain electricity supply during drought years.

Crop Insurance

The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) provides financial protection to farmers against crop losses caused by adverse weather conditions, including drought and deficient rainfall.

Way Forward

India must strengthen climate-resilient agriculture through the adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, diversified farming systems, and improved soil management practices. Greater emphasis should be placed on micro-irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and groundwater recharge to reduce dependence on monsoon rainfall.

Integrated river basin management, improved reservoir operations, and community-led watershed development should become central components of water security planning. Simultaneously, advances in weather forecasting, climate advisory services, and digital dissemination of weather information should be expanded to support timely agricultural decision-making.

Finally, climate change adaptation must be integrated into rural development policies, while promoting sustainable farming practices and community participation to build long-term resilience against increasing monsoon variability.

Conclusion

The Indian Monsoon is no longer merely a seasonal weather phenomenon but a critical determinant of the country's food security, water availability, energy production, and economic stability. Increasing climate variability has made weak monsoons more frequent and unpredictable. While initiatives such as IMD's advanced forecasting systems, PMKSY, PMFBY, and water conservation programmes have strengthened India's resilience, sustained investments in climate adaptation, efficient water management, resilient agriculture, and scientific forecasting will be essential to safeguard India's developmental trajectory in the coming decades