THE OLD MIDDLE-EAST WILL NOT BE BACK

Why in the News?

Israel has launched intense airstrikes in Gaza after the territory's militant rulers carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel killing thousands and abducting hundreds of people as captives.

“Old Middle East” will not be back:

1. Though terror attack by Hamas on Israel can have an impact on the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it shall be only short-term.
2. It is unlikely to hold over the long term because for several reasons:
   1. Hamas cannot fight a long-term war with Israel
   2. Regional powers except Iran, have shown little inclination to escalate the conflict.
   3. Iran’s increasing influence in the region will make Saudi Arabia more vulnerable, pushing it closer to the US.
3. Divided support to the Palestinian cause by the states of West Asia:
   1. The Hamas’ attack was to terrorise Israel and galvanise the West Asian states in repositioning the Palestine problem.
   2. Though it was achieved, it has unified the fractured Israeli government which was facing fractures due to internal political strife.
   3. Presently, Israel gained advantages of:
      1. Mobilised its society
      2. Garnered Western support
      3. Ready to dispatch ground forces which might change the status quo in Gaza strip, as Israel is determined in collapsing the governance and sovereignty of the Hamas organisation.
4. Hamas’ ability to sustain the conflict rests entirely on the backing of Hezbollah and Iran.
   1. Iran has held that Palestine has a right to resist occupation and blamed Israel squarely for the incident.
   2. Tehran is working in a full-fledged manner to galvanise support in the Arab world.
5. The Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran connect development has alarmed the Saudis. 
   1. Though Saudi provides unequivocal in their support for Palestinian statehood, it has hard ties with Hamas owing to the latter’s proximity to Iran and Turkey.
   2. Saudi is also under the pressure amidst the growing wave of anti-Israel sentiment in the region to break all ties with the Jewish state. 
   3. Riyadh has suspended its negotiations with Israel, but its vulnerability has multiplied.
   4. The Saudis cannot depend on China and Russia for their security as Iran has stronger ties with these nations and hence, it is likely to remain close to Washington.
6. US is likely to remain engaged in the region:
   1. It is taking extensive measures to contain the crisis by deterring Hezbollah and Iran.
   2. It has deployed nuclear-powered USS Dwight D Eisenhower and the USS Gerald R Ford carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean.
   3. Antony Blinken visited Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt to assure civilian protection to these states.