India-Eurasia Relations

The evolving dynamics between Europe and Asia are creating new strategic opportunities for India. This is largely driven by the complex geopolitical landscape in Eurasia, which includes conflicts, shifting alliances, and increasing global interconnectivity.

Factors Highlighting the Changing Geopolitics of the Eurasian Region

1. Hotbed of Conflicts:
   • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The ongoing conflict has significant geopolitical implications, impacting regional security and international relations.
   • Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute continues to be a point of contention, influencing regional stability and geopolitical alliances.
2. Growing Chinese Influence:
   • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China's BRI extends across Central Asia, Russia, and into Europe, significantly enhancing China’s economic and geopolitical influence in Eurasia.
   • Economic Ties with Europe: Europe’s increasing economic engagement with China further solidifies China’s presence and influence in the region.
3. Changing Strategic Priorities of the US:
   • Withdrawal from Afghanistan: The US’s focus has shifted from the Middle East to Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.
   • Strengthening NATO: The US is enhancing NATO's role in response to regional threats and conflicts.
   • Three Seas Initiative: This initiative, aimed at enhancing cooperation between countries from the Adriatic, Baltic, and Black Seas, reflects a strategic focus on Eurasia.
4. Regional Geostrategic Alliances:
   • China-Russia Partnership: The ‘no limits’ partnership between China and Russia is designed to counterbalance US influence.
   • Russia-Iran-China Axis: This emerging alliance reflects a strategic realignment in response to Western policies.
   • Strategic Pentagonal: The collaboration between China, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan showcases the complexity of regional alignments aimed at countering Western influence.
5. Tilt in Russia’s Foreign Policy Toward Asia:
   • Strategic Visits: Recent visits by the Russian president to North Korea and Vietnam underscore Russia’s pivot towards Asia as part of its broader foreign policy strategy.
6. Alignment of East Asian Countries with Western Europe:
   • Japan, South Korea, and AUKUS: Countries like Japan and South Korea are working to integrate Europe into the Indo-Pacific strategy, with initiatives like AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) playing a role in bridging the gap between Asia and Europe.
7. Shift of Global Order Towards Eurasia:

• India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC): This corridor exemplifies the commitment of the US, Europe, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to fostering a more balanced and interconnected Eurasian order. It aims to enhance economic connectivity and strategic cooperation across Eurasia.

Implications for India

1. Strategic Opportunities:
   • Enhanced Connectivity: India’s involvement in initiatives like IMEC provides opportunities to strengthen its economic and strategic ties with Eurasian countries.
   • Balancing Power: By engaging in the evolving geopolitical landscape of Eurasia, India can balance China's growing influence and contribute to regional stability.
2. Diplomatic Engagement:
   • Multi-Alignment Strategy: India’s participation in various regional and global initiatives allows it to maintain strategic autonomy while building partnerships with both Western and Eurasian powers.
   • Increased Influence: Active engagement in Eurasian geopolitics enhances India's role as a significant global player and mediator.
3. Economic and Security Interests:
   • Trade and Investment: Improved connectivity and economic cooperation with Eurasian countries can boost India's trade and investment opportunities.
   • Regional Security: Addressing conflicts and strategic shifts in Eurasia aligns with India's interests in promoting regional security and stability.

Opportunities for India in the Evolving Eurasian Landscape

Strategic Opportunities

1. Strengthening Ties with Russia:
   • Counterbalance to China: India can leverage its relationship with Russia to mediate in the Ukraine conflict and counterbalance China's influence. A closer partnership with Russia can also enhance India's strategic positioning in Eurasia.
   • Integrated Deterrence Strategy: The US's strategy of forming strong security partnerships with middle powers presents India with an opportunity to bolster its national power and military capabilities. Enhanced defense cooperation with the US can strengthen India's strategic posture against both China and Russia.
2. Strategic Partnerships:
   • Growing Defense Ties: India’s expanding defense partnership with countries like Armenia can bolster its broader Eurasian strategy. Such partnerships can help India establish a foothold in the region and contribute to regional stability.

Economic Opportunities

1. Energy Security:
   • Central Asian Partnerships: Central Asian states, rich in oil, natural gas, uranium, and iron ore, represent potential long-term partners for India in securing energy and mineral resources. Strengthening ties with these countries can enhance India’s energy security and resource availability.
2. Enhanced Trade with Russia:
   • Bilateral Trade Targets: India and Russia aim to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. Achieving this target will deepen the economic relationship and open new avenues for trade and investment.
3. Improved Trade and Connectivity:
   • Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Negotiating an FTA with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could significantly boost trade. Coupled with the full functionality of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), India’s trade with Eurasia could expand from around $20 billion to $170 billion.
4. Market Expansion:
   • IT Services and Digital Solutions: India can tap into the Eurasian markets by exporting IT services and digital solutions, leveraging its technological expertise to meet the region's growing digital needs.

Regional Security

1. Countering Terrorism and Extremism:
   • Central Asia Collaboration: Working with Central Asian countries to combat terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking is crucial for regional security and aligns with India’s national interests in promoting stability in the region.

Cultural Diplomacy

1. Leveraging Historical and Cultural Ties:
   • Soft Power: India can use its historical and cultural connections with Eurasian countries, such as those rooted in Buddhism and yoga, to build soft power and enhance its influence in the region.

Challenges in the Evolving Eurasian Landscape for India

1. Geographical Connectivity and Infrastructure:
   • Connectivity Issues: India faces challenges related to geographical connectivity and the slow progress on key projects like INSTC and IMEC. Improving these connections is vital for enhancing trade and strategic engagement.
2. Pakistan Factor:
   • Geographic Limitations: The geopolitical barrier represented by Pakistan complicates India’s efforts to expand its role in Eurasian geopolitics. Overcoming this limitation is crucial for broader regional engagement.
3. Threats from China:
   • BRI Challenges: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents a challenge to India’s strategic interests, including its Connect Central Asia Policy. India needs to explore alternatives and strengthen its own connectivity initiatives.
4. Challenges in Indo-Russia Relations:
   • Growing Proximity to China: Russia’s increasing proximity to China and India’s alignment with the US or QUAD could create friction in Indo-Russian relations. Navigating this complex dynamic requires careful diplomacy.
5. Balancing Strategic Partnerships:
   • Managing Divergent Interests: India must balance its strategic partnerships and maintain autonomy while aligning with both maritime (e.g., QUAD) and continental (e.g., Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) coalitions.

Way Forward

1. Enhance Connectivity:
   • Join Greater Eurasian Corridor: India should consider participating in Russia’s Greater Eurasian Corridor and the Northeast Passage to improve connections to the Far East and Japan.
2. Strengthening Relations with the EU:
   • Enhanced Engagement: India’s Eurasian strategy should include deeper engagement with the European Union, aligning its interests with broader European initiatives.
3. Central Asia as Core:
   • Annual Summits: Holding the India-Central Asia Summit annually, rather than biannually, could strengthen ties and enhance strategic cooperation.
4. Balancing Different Regions:
   • Integrating Policies: India needs to balance its Connect Central Asia policy with its Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific Strategy. Engaging in platforms like BRICS, SCO, and RIC can help promote multi-dimensional strategic cooperation.
5. Intensify Dialogues with Russia:
   • Expand Cooperation: India and Russia should focus on narrowing disagreements and expanding cooperation, particularly in continental Eurasian security, to foster a stronger bilateral relationship.