Hamas leader

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

• Assassination Context:
• Haniyeh, a prominent figure of Hamas, was killed in Iran, which raises concerns about the safety of Hamas leaders even under Iranian protection.
• The incident follows recent tensions between Iran and Israel, suggesting a potential resurgence in hostilities.
• Impact on Middle East Dynamics:
• The assassination occurred shortly after an Israeli strike in Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander, amplifying fears of a broader conflict in the region.
• Israeli Perspective:
• For Israel, this represents a strategic victory in its efforts to dismantle Hamas, especially following the October 7 attacks that resulted in significant Israeli casualties.
• Haniyeh's death is viewed as a key milestone in Israel's Operation Swords of Iron.
• Hamas's Reaction:
• Hamas sees this as a provocation, as Haniyeh was instrumental in negotiations regarding hostages and ceasefire terms.
• His assassination could lead to intensified retaliation from Hamas.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has created significant pressure on the newly elected Iranian President, Pezeshkian.

• Pressure for Retaliation:
• Both within Iran and among Hamas supporters, there will be strong calls for avenging Haniyeh's death, putting Pezeshkian in a difficult position. He may face demands from hardliners and the IRGC to take a strong retaliatory stance.
• Shift in Policy Focus:
• Pezeshkian’s election campaign centered on negotiating with the West to alleviate economic sanctions. The assassination complicates these diplomatic efforts, as responding to the incident may take precedence over negotiations.
• Regional Tensions:
• The assassination is likely to escalate tensions in West Asia, impacting countries like Qatar, Turkey, and the Yemeni Houthis, who have condemned the act. Regional players, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are closely monitoring the situation.
• India's Cautious Approach:
• India is likely to frame its response carefully, given the complexities of international relations involved in a targeted assassination. India's primary concern remains regional stability, crucial for its expatriate community and oil supplies

The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has escalated significantly, raising concerns about its global economic impact. Bloomberg outlines three potential scenarios:

1. Limited Conflict in Gaza

• Description: The conflict stays mainly within the Gaza Strip.
• Potential Effects:
• Minimal direct impact on the global economy.
• Increased humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with casualties rising significantly.

2. Regional Conflict with Iran-backed Militants

• Description: The conflict expands to involve Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
• Potential Effects:
• Escalation of violence and instability in the region.
• Oil prices could rise to the mid-USD 90s.
• Global inflation rates may increase, potentially reducing economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.

3. Full-scale War Involving Israel, Iran, and Major Powers

• Description: A broader conflict involving Israel, Iran, and potentially major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia.
• Potential Effects:
• Disruption of trade and crude oil supply from the Middle East, with prices potentially soaring to USD 150 per barrel.
• Global inflation could reach about 6.7% in 2024, potentially slowing global economic growth by nearly 2 percentage points, risking a worldwide recession.