Daily News Analysis

Trade and Development Report 2026

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India accounted for 5.7% of global greenfield investment during 2020–2025, more than double China’s share of 2.8%, according to the latest Trade and Development Report 2026.

The report also highlights India’s strong economic growth prospects, increasing manufacturing capacity and the growing importance of developing economies in the global economy.

About the Trade and Development Report

The Trade and Development Report was first published in 1981 and is released annually by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

It analyses global economic trends, international trade, investment flows and major economic policy issues. It also provides policy recommendations to address challenges affecting the global economy.

What Is Greenfield Investment?

Greenfield investment is a form of foreign direct investment (FDI) in which a company establishes a new business facility or operation in another country instead of acquiring an existing business.

It includes the construction of new factories, manufacturing plants, data centres and other infrastructure.

Greenfield investment contributes to employment generation, technology transfer, manufacturing capacity and economic development in the host country.

Key Highlights of the Trade and Development Report 2026

Global Trade Trends

Global trade is projected to grow by 4% in 2026, compared with 4.4% in the previous year. Global trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025.

Higher energy prices and export controls have contributed to increases in trade values.

Trade between China and the United States has declined by more than 20% since 2024. Meanwhile, East Asian economies have expanded their trade relationships with both China and North America.

Global Economic Growth Projections

Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2026, compared with 2.9% in 2025.

Developing economies are expected to grow by 4% in 2026, down from 4.7% in 2025.

Asia is projected to contribute 59% of global economic growth in 2026, highlighting its growing importance in the world economy.

Growing Importance of Strategic Sectors

Governments are increasingly using industrial, trade, financial and technology policies to achieve economic and national security objectives.

Strategic sectors increased their share of global greenfield investment from 16% in 2020 to 44% in 2025.

The major investment sectors during 2020–2025 were:

Strategic sector

Share of global greenfield investment

AI infrastructure and related technologies

12.4%

Semiconductor value chain

8.1%

Energy-transition technologies and services

7.8%

These sectors accounted for significant investment within the reported $845.7 billion in global greenfield investment during the period.

Artificial intelligence-related products, particularly advanced computing equipment deployed in data centres, have become an important driver of merchandise trade.

Regional Distribution of Strategic Investment

Strategic investment remains concentrated in a few major regions.

Region

Share of strategic investment

Europe

28.4%

North America

28%

Developing Asia

26.5%

Within developing Asia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are important destinations for new investments.

India-Specific Findings

India's Share in Global Greenfield Investment

India accounted for 5.7% of global greenfield investment during 2020–2025, compared with Malaysia at 4%, Indonesia at 3.8% and China at 2.8%.

This highlights India's growing importance as a destination for new investment projects.

However, greenfield investment is distinct from total FDI inflows and the overall stock of foreign investment in a country.

Industrial Policy Measures in India

The report examined India's use of industrial policies to promote economic development and strategic sectors.

Period

Industrial policy measures in India

Comparative position

2008–2021

1,416

China recorded 4,201 and the United States 4,025

2022–2025

707

The United States, China, Australia and Brazil each implemented more measures than India

These figures indicate that India has used industrial policies extensively, although its relative position changed during the more recent period.

India's Economic Growth Outlook

India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with GDP growth expected to reach 7.3% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027.

The principal drivers of India's economic growth include:

  • Robust domestic demand, which supports production and consumption.

  • Increasing manufacturing capacity, which strengthens industrial development.

  • Public infrastructure programmes, which improve connectivity and economic productivity.

  • Household consumption, which remains an important source of economic activity.

Household consumption is projected to grow by 6.9% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.

Despite these positive factors, India's substantial dependence on oil imports leaves its economy vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy prices.

Significance for India

Investment and Employment Generation

Greenfield investments can create employment opportunities, expand industrial capacity and strengthen domestic production.

Technological Advancement

Investment in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and energy-transition technologies can help India participate more effectively in global value chains.

Economic Resilience

Strong domestic demand and public infrastructure investment can support India's economic growth despite geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in global trade.

Policy Challenges

India needs to improve infrastructure, workforce skills, research and development, and regulatory predictability to attract investment and convert it into productive economic activity.

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