SIPRI Yearbook 2026

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent international institute dedicated to research on conflict, armaments, and international security, released its SIPRI Yearbook 2026, providing a comprehensive assessment of global military developments, nuclear arsenals, disarmament efforts, and emerging security challenges. The report highlights significant changes in the international strategic environment, including growing military expenditures, the modernization of nuclear forces, the increasing role of artificial intelligence in warfare, and the weakening of global arms-control frameworks.

For India, the report assumes particular importance as it notes the expansion of the country's nuclear arsenal and indicates that a portion of its nuclear warheads has been placed in an operationally "deployed" state for the first time, reflecting an evolution in India's strategic posture amid a complex regional security environment.

Key Findings Related to India

India as the Fifth-Largest Military Spender

According to the SIPRI Yearbook 2026, India emerged as the fifth-largest military spender in the world in 2025, following the United States, China, Russia, and Germany. India's defence expenditure increased by 8.9 per cent over the previous year, reaching approximately USD 92.1 billion.

The increase in military spending reflects India's evolving security challenges, which include a simultaneous nuclear rivalry with Pakistan, strategic competition with China in the Indo-Pacific region, and growing uncertainties arising from the weakening of multilateral security arrangements.

India's Position as a Major Arms Importer

India continued to remain one of the world's largest importers of major weapons systems. During the period from 2021 to 2025, India accounted for 8.2 per cent of global arms imports, making it the second-largest arms importer after Ukraine.

This dependence on foreign defence equipment underscores the importance of initiatives such as Atmanirbhar Bharat and the promotion of indigenous defence manufacturing to reduce external vulnerabilities and strengthen strategic autonomy.

Expansion of India's Nuclear Arsenal

The report estimates that India possessed approximately 190 nuclear warheads as of January 2026, comprising 12 deployed warheads and 178 warheads kept in reserve or storage facilities. In comparison, China possessed around 620 warheads, while Pakistan maintained an estimated arsenal of 170 warheads.

The deployment of a limited number of warheads represents a significant strategic development, indicating an increased emphasis on operational readiness while remaining consistent with India's doctrine of credible minimum deterrence.

Integration of Cyber Warfare

The report also highlighted Operation Sindoor, the India-Pakistan military confrontation of May 2025, as a landmark event in South Asian security dynamics. For the first time, both countries integrated cyber operations into active military engagements, illustrating the growing importance of cyberspace as a domain of modern warfare.

This development suggests that future deterrence strategies in South Asia will increasingly incorporate cyber capabilities alongside conventional and nuclear forces.

Global Security Trends Identified by SIPRI

Increasing Reliance on Nuclear Weapons

SIPRI observed that all nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and increasingly regard nuclear weapons as essential instruments of national power.

This trend reflects a broader deterioration in global security conditions and a declining confidence in traditional arms-control mechanisms.

Rising Military Expenditure Across the World

The report noted a significant increase in military spending worldwide. In June 2025, NATO members agreed to raise their defence spending target to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, substantially higher than the earlier benchmark of 2 per cent established in 2014.

Ukraine recorded the world's highest military burden, with defence expenditure amounting to nearly 40 per cent of its GDP, reflecting the extraordinary demands imposed by ongoing conflict.

Global Nuclear Inventory and Strategic Risks

Globally, the total nuclear arsenal is estimated at approximately 12,187 warheads, of which nearly 9,745 remain in military stockpiles for potential operational use. More than 4,000 warheads are currently deployed on missiles and aircraft.

The United States and Russia continue to dominate the global nuclear landscape, together possessing approximately 86 per cent of the world's nuclear weapons. The expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026, without any replacement agreement, has heightened concerns regarding strategic stability and future arms races.

Slowdown in Nuclear Disarmament

Although the total number of nuclear weapons worldwide continues to decline marginally due to the dismantling of retired Cold War-era warheads by the United States and Russia, the pace of disarmament has slowed considerably.

This slowdown is primarily attributable to the simultaneous induction of modernized nuclear systems, suggesting that qualitative improvements are replacing quantitative reductions in global arsenals.

Weakening of International Arms-Control Frameworks

The global arms-control architecture has experienced significant setbacks. In March 2025, Lithuania became the first country to withdraw from the Convention on Cluster Munitions, a landmark humanitarian arms-control treaty.

Similarly, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland withdrew from the Anti-Personnel Mine Convention, reflecting growing security anxieties in Europe and raising concerns about the future of humanitarian disarmament efforts.

Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Military Technologies

Battlefield Integration of Artificial Intelligence

The SIPRI report emphasizes that artificial intelligence has become an integral component of contemporary warfare. AI-assisted targeting systems and autonomous weapons are increasingly being employed in active conflict zones such as Gaza and Ukraine.

These technologies are transforming military operations by enhancing precision, reducing response times, and enabling more sophisticated battlefield management.

The Rise of Drone Warfare

The growing use of drone swarms and first-person-view unmanned aerial vehicles has fundamentally altered the nature of modern warfare. These systems provide relatively inexpensive yet highly effective capabilities, allowing smaller actors to challenge conventional military superiority.

A notable example was Operation Spider's Web in June 2025, during which Ukraine reportedly employed more than one hundred smuggled drones to damage Russian military aircraft, demonstrating the asymmetric potential of unmanned systems.

India's Nuclear Doctrine

Foundations of the Doctrine

India formally adopted its nuclear doctrine in 2003, establishing a framework based on credible minimum deterrence and a firm commitment to No First Use (NFU). The doctrine seeks to maintain a nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter aggression while avoiding unnecessary arms races.

Credible Minimum Deterrence

The principle of credible minimum deterrence implies that India maintains only those nuclear capabilities necessary to convince potential adversaries that any nuclear attack would result in unacceptable consequences. The objective is deterrence rather than military dominance or parity with other nuclear powers.

No First Use Policy

India's No First Use policy commits the country to employing nuclear weapons only in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or armed forces, regardless of their location. This principle reflects India's longstanding emphasis on responsible nuclear stewardship and strategic restraint.

Massive Retaliation

India's doctrine also incorporates the concept of massive retaliation, whereby any nuclear attack on India would invite an overwhelming response designed to inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressor. This approach is rooted in the broader strategic principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

Civilian Political Control

The authority to order nuclear retaliation rests exclusively with civilian leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA). The Political Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, is the sole body authorized to approve the use of nuclear weapons, while the Executive Council, headed by the National Security Advisor, assists in implementing policy decisions.

Conditional Nuclear Response

Although India pledges not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states, it reserves the right to retaliate with nuclear weapons in response to major chemical or biological attacks. This provision constitutes India's negative security assurance policy.

Commitment to Global Disarmament

India continues to support the universal, verifiable, and non-discriminatory elimination of nuclear weapons. The country maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing and advocates comprehensive global disarmament measures.

Evolution of India's Nuclear Posture

Peaceful Nuclear Development (1947–1974)

India's nuclear programme initially focused on peaceful applications and energy self-reliance under the leadership of physicist Homi J. Bhabha and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. However, changing security dynamics, particularly China's nuclear test in 1964, prompted India to reconsider its strategic approach.

This culminated in Pokhran-I (Smiling Buddha) on 18 May 1974, which India officially described as a peaceful nuclear explosion.

Weaponization Phase (1974–1998)

Following the 1974 test, India encountered international sanctions and increasing diplomatic pressure. The emergence of a nuclear-armed China and the China-Pakistan strategic nexus further intensified India's security concerns.

Consequently, India conducted Operation Shakti (Pokhran-II) in May 1998, comprising five underground nuclear tests. Subsequently, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee formally declared India a nuclear-weapon state.

Consolidation as an Established Nuclear Power (1998–Present)

India developed its draft nuclear doctrine in 1999 and formally operationalized it in 2003. The country's integration into global nuclear commerce was further strengthened through the 2008 India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement and the exceptional waiver granted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group despite India's non-signatory status to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

India's Position on Global Nuclear Treaties

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and CTBT

India has consistently declined to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). India argues that the NPT institutionalizes an unequal global nuclear order by recognizing only certain states as legitimate nuclear powers while permitting continued vertical proliferation among them.

Participation in Export Control Regimes

India's responsible non-proliferation record has facilitated its membership in major multilateral export-control arrangements, including the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the Wassenaar Arrangement, and the Australia Group. The country continues to seek membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Opposition to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

India has not joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), arguing that the treaty lacks an effective and universally applicable verification framework necessary to ensure genuine nuclear disarmament.

Conclusion

The SIPRI Yearbook 2026 reflects an increasingly uncertain global security environment characterized by rising military expenditures, nuclear modernization, technological transformation, and weakening arms-control mechanisms. India's evolving nuclear posture, including the limited deployment of operational warheads, demonstrates its efforts to maintain credible deterrence amid complex regional challenges.

At the same time, India's adherence to the principles of No First Use, civilian control, and global nuclear disarmament continues to distinguish its strategic doctrine. As emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and unmanned systems reshape military affairs, India will need to balance deterrence, technological innovation, and responsible strategic conduct to safeguard its national interests and contribute to international stability.