PM Modi’s Visit

PM Modi's recent visit to Russia was a significant diplomatic engagement, reflecting the deepening ties between India and Russia.

Key Highlights of PM Modi’s Visit

1. Highest Civilian Honour

• Order of St Andrew the Apostle: PM Modi was honored with Russia’s highest civilian award, a recognition of his role in strengthening bilateral relations. Although the award was announced in 2019, it was presented during this visit.

2. Bilateral Talks

• Focus Areas: The summit focused on a broad range of issues, including defense, investment, energy cooperation, education, and cultural exchanges.
• Ukraine Conflict: PM Modi emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict, stressing that peace talks cannot be successful amidst ongoing violence. This stance aligns with India's broader diplomatic approach to international conflicts.
• Indian Nationals: PM Modi requested the Russian President to expedite the discharge of Indian recruits in the Russian military, showing concern for Indian citizens involved in the conflict.

3. Interactions with Indian Community

• Address in Moscow: PM Modi highlighted India's growing global stature and the contributions of the Indian diaspora to enhancing India-Russia relations.
• Consulate Openings: Announced the opening of Indian Consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg, expanding diplomatic outreach in Russia.

4. Rosatom Pavilion

• Atomic Symphony: At the Rosatom Pavilion, PM Modi viewed a model of the VVER-1000 reactor, which is part of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in India, symbolizing ongoing nuclear cooperation.

5. Joint Vision Statement on Trade and Economic Cooperation

• Economic Focus: This summit marked a shift from previous meetings, which were predominantly focused on defense and strategic issues. The emphasis was on economic cooperation, reflecting a desire to enhance trade and investment.
• Key Issues:
• Non-Tariff Barriers: Efforts to eliminate non-tariff barriers to trade.
• Bilateral Settlement System: Development of a settlement system using national currencies to bypass Western sanctions.
• Customs Procedures: Streamlining customs procedures and exploring new connectivity routes, such as the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route, Northern Sea Route, and International North-South Transport Corridor.
• Energy Sector: Investments in nuclear energy and infrastructure development.
• Trade Target: India and Russia set an ambitious goal to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. The bilateral trade had already reached a record high of $65.70 billion in FY 2023-24, largely due to increased imports of Russian crude oil.

6. Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs)

• Areas of Cooperation: Signed MoUs on various topics, including climate change, polar research, legal arbitration, and pharmaceutical certification, broadening the scope of bilateral collaboration.

Implications and Analysis

Strengthening Bilateral Relations

• Economic Cooperation: The shift towards economic issues and trade targets indicates a strategic move to balance the longstanding defense cooperation with economic growth. This approach aligns with India's broader objective of diversifying its economic partnerships and reducing dependence on any single country.

Diplomatic Strategy

• Ukraine Conflict: India's call for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict reflects its position as a responsible global actor advocating for diplomacy over conflict. This stance helps maintain India’s neutrality and moral authority in international affairs.

Strategic Infrastructure

• Connectivity Routes: The emphasis on developing new connectivity routes like the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route and the International North-South Transport Corridor highlights the strategic importance of enhancing logistical and trade links between India and Russia. This infrastructure development could also have broader implications for regional trade and security.

Domestic and Global Impact

• Indian Community: Strengthening ties with the Indian diaspora and opening new consulates underscores India’s commitment to protecting its citizens abroad and fostering bilateral relations through cultural and community engagement.
• Trade Goals: Achieving the $100 billion trade target would significantly elevate India-Russia trade to levels comparable with India's trade relations with major global economies. This would not only boost economic ties but also position India as a key partner in Russia’s economic strategy.

Key Areas of Engagement Between India and Russia

1. Defence Cooperation

• Historical Context: The USSR was India’s main supplier of defense equipment during the Cold War. Today, a significant portion of India's defense arsenal is of Russian and Soviet origin, reflecting a deep-seated defense relationship.
• Current Cooperation:
• Supply Agreements: India has procured advanced systems such as the S-400 Triumf mobile surface-to-air missile systems, MiG-29 fighter aircraft, and Kamov helicopters from Russia.
• Joint Production: The defense cooperation has evolved from mere procurement to include joint research and development, co-development, and joint production of equipment. Notable projects include the licensed production of T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI fighter jets, AK-203 assault rifles, and BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.
• Aircraft Carrier: The INS Vikramaditya, one of India’s aircraft carriers, was originally the Soviet warship Admiral Gorshkov, showcasing the enduring naval collaboration.

2. Oil and Energy Cooperation

• Increased Purchases: Since the onset of the Ukraine war, India has significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil, benefiting from discounted prices. This strategy has helped India mitigate the inflationary pressures of rising global crude prices.
• Political Stance: Despite international criticism, India’s External Affairs Minister has reiterated the country’s commitment to continuing Russian oil imports in the interest of its consumers.

3. Trade Relations

• Surge in Trade: The bilateral trade between India and Russia has surged, reaching a record high of $65.70 billion in FY 2023-24, well above the pre-war target of $30 billion by 2025. This increase has been driven largely by India's imports of Russian crude oil.
• Trade Composition: India’s imports from Russia include oil, petroleum products, fertilizers, mineral resources, precious stones and metals, and vegetable oils.

Challenges for India in Maintaining Its Ties with Russia

1. Trade Imbalance

• Heavy Import Dependence: India’s trade balance with Russia is significantly skewed in Russia’s favor, with Indian imports totaling $61.44 billion, primarily comprising oil and petroleum products, minerals, and other resources. This dependence highlights a need for diversifying trade and balancing economic engagements.

2. Diplomatic Balance

• Neutral Stance: India has managed a delicate diplomatic balance by not explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while expressing concerns about the threats of nuclear escalation made by Russian leaders.
• UNSC Voting: India has abstained from voting against Russia on several resolutions at the UN Security Council (UNSC), reflecting its cautious stance in international forums.

3. Relations with Western Nations

• Diplomatic Tensions: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has positioned India in a challenging spot with its Western allies, requiring careful navigation of its foreign policy to maintain relations with both Russia and Western nations.
• Recent Meetings: Prior to PM Modi’s visit to Russia, India engaged in a series of high-profile meetings with Western leaders, indicating efforts to balance its strategic partnerships.

4. Perceived Mediation Role

• Neutral Player: There is a perception that India is positioning itself as a neutral mediator between Russia and Ukraine. This role underscores India's strategic positioning but also adds complexity to its international diplomacy.

5. Issues with Indian Nationals

• Recruitment Concerns: Some Indians in Russia have been reported to have been misled into joining the conflict in Ukraine. India has actively sought their early discharge, highlighting concerns for its citizens caught in the conflict.