Mega Science Vision-2035 (MSV) Report on Climate Research

Recently, the Mega Science Vision-2035 (MSV) Report on Climate Research raised serious concerns about India's declining capability to develop indigenous scientific instruments for climate observation and weather forecasting. The report warned that excessive dependence on imported equipment, inadequate calibration practices, and structural weaknesses in climate research infrastructure are adversely affecting the quality and reliability of India's climate data.

The report emphasized that as India faces increasingly severe climate challenges such as heatwaves, erratic monsoons, extreme rainfall events, droughts, and glacier melting, strengthening domestic scientific and technological capabilities has become a strategic necessity.

About the Mega Science Vision-2035 (MSV) Report

The Mega Science Vision-2035 (MSV) Report is a comprehensive roadmap prepared by India's climate research community to guide the future direction of climate science and weather forecasting in the country.

The report was prepared under the leadership of the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru and submitted to the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (PSA) to the Government of India.

Its primary objective is to identify critical gaps in India's climate research ecosystem, outline future priorities, estimate funding requirements, and propose a long-term strategy to strengthen the country's scientific capacity up to the year 2035.

Loss of India's Instrument-Making Capability

One of the most significant concerns highlighted in the report is the near-complete erosion of India's indigenous capability to manufacture sophisticated scientific instruments used in climate observation and atmospheric monitoring.

According to the report, India has gradually lost its traditional culture of designing and producing advanced scientific instruments domestically. As a result, climate scientists and research institutions now depend heavily on imported equipment for collecting weather, atmospheric, oceanic, and environmental data.

This dependence creates multiple challenges. Imported instruments often require periodic calibration and technical support, which may not always be readily available. Consequently, many instruments continue operating for years without proper calibration, affecting the accuracy and reliability of the data they generate.

The report warns that such practices have led to inaccurate scientific observations and have raised questions internationally regarding the credibility of climate data published by Indian researchers in national and global scientific journals.

Concerns Regarding Renewable Energy Expansion

While acknowledging India's commitment to achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, the report cautions that the environmental consequences of large-scale renewable energy deployment remain insufficiently understood.

Massive installations of solar parks and wind farms can alter local land-use patterns, atmospheric conditions, biodiversity, and microclimates. However, systematic long-term monitoring of these impacts remains inadequate.

The report emphasizes that renewable energy expansion must be accompanied by rigorous environmental assessment and continuous scientific monitoring to ensure that climate mitigation efforts do not unintentionally create new ecological challenges.

Dependence on Foreign Earth System Models

The report identifies another major weakness in India's climate research framework: the reliance on foreign-developed Earth System Models (ESMs).

An Earth System Model integrates data from the atmosphere, oceans, land surfaces, glaciers, vegetation, and other environmental components to simulate long-term climate behavior and future climate scenarios.

At present, many climate models used by Indian researchers are adapted from models originally developed in the United States and Europe. These models were designed using climatic conditions and environmental datasets specific to those regions.

As a result, they often struggle to accurately capture India's unique climatic features, including the monsoon system, Himalayan influences, tropical weather patterns, and regional environmental variability.

The report argues that dependence on foreign models limits India's ability to make precise climate projections and formulate effective climate adaptation strategies.

Procurement Challenges in Scientific Research

The report also highlights significant obstacles arising from existing procurement procedures.

Government-funded scientific institutions are generally required to procure equipment through the Government e-Marketplace (GeM) platform, which often prioritizes the lowest bidder among registered vendors.

While this approach promotes transparency and cost efficiency, it frequently proves unsuitable for advanced scientific research, where specialized, customized, and high-precision instruments are required.

Researchers have reported that vendors selected through standard procurement mechanisms often fail to provide equipment that meets scientific specifications.

Although global tenders provide an alternative, they are frequently delayed by lengthy administrative processes, slowing down research activities.

Recognizing these concerns, the Ministry of Finance relaxed procurement rules in June 2025, allowing certain scientific institutions to purchase specialized equipment outside the GeM platform for procurements worth up to ₹200 crore.

Other Major Gaps Identified by the Report

The report identifies several additional weaknesses that hinder the growth of climate science in India.

Research on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies remains insufficient despite the growing importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The report also points to weak integration between environmental surveillance systems and public health databases. Such integration is essential for understanding how climate change influences disease patterns, heat stress, air pollution, and public health outcomes.

Furthermore, the report observes that climate considerations are still not adequately incorporated into broader policy-making processes. A comprehensive framework linking climate science with economic planning, urban development, agriculture, health, and infrastructure remains largely absent.

Structural Challenges in Indian Weather Forecasting

Geographical and Climatic Complexity

The report stresses that comparing India's forecasting performance directly with countries such as the United States or the United Kingdom is often misleading.

Unlike temperate regions, India possesses a highly dynamic tropical climate characterized by complex interactions among monsoons, oceans, mountains, and land surfaces. These factors make weather prediction inherently more challenging.

Impact of Climate Change

Climate change is increasingly disrupting historical weather patterns that traditional forecasting systems rely upon.

As temperatures rise and weather systems become more erratic, past climatic trends are becoming less reliable indicators of future conditions. This growing unpredictability complicates forecasting efforts and reduces the effectiveness of conventional prediction models.

Macro-Micro Forecasting Gap

The report notes that forecasting accuracy varies considerably depending on the geographical scale involved.

Large-scale weather phenomena such as monsoon progression, heatwaves, or cyclonic systems can generally be predicted with reasonable accuracy.

However, forecasting localized events such as cloudbursts, flash floods, or isolated extreme rainfall episodes remains extremely difficult because such events evolve rapidly and are influenced by highly localized atmospheric conditions.

India's Recent Meteorological Initiatives

To improve forecasting capabilities, India has launched several important initiatives.

Programs such as Mission Mausam, Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS), Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF), and AI-enabled Forecast of Monsoon Advance seek to enhance predictive accuracy through advanced computing and artificial intelligence.

The country has also expanded its network of Doppler Weather Radars, which provide real-time monitoring of atmospheric conditions.

Another significant initiative is SkyCast, an advanced atmospheric remote sensing system developed by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) under Mission Mausam. SkyCast integrates observations related to fog, visibility, turbulence, moisture, and aerosols to improve aviation weather forecasting and reduce flight disruptions.

Key Recommendations of the MSV Report

Launch of Mega Climate Science Projects

The report proposes eight major climate-science projects involving advanced observatories, specialized satellites, large-scale field campaigns, monitoring networks, and indigenous sensor development programs. These projects are planned in phases up to 2035.

Development of an Indigenous Earth System Model

The report strongly recommends building a fully indigenous Earth System Model from first principles.

The proposed model should leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques while incorporating India's unique geographical, atmospheric, and oceanographic conditions to improve forecasting accuracy.

Reviving Domestic Instrument Manufacturing

A key recommendation is the revival of India's scientific instrument manufacturing ecosystem.

The report calls for targeted investments in research, development, production, and calibration technologies to reduce dependence on imported equipment and improve data quality.

Expansion of Observation Networks

The report advocates the expansion of:

• Surface weather stations;

• Ocean buoy networks;

• Greenhouse gas monitoring systems; and

• Environmental observation infrastructure.

This would help eliminate existing geographical blind spots and improve climate monitoring coverage across the country.

Applying the Polluter Pays Principle

The report recommends developing scientific methodologies to estimate the Social Cost of Carbon, which represents the economic damage caused by each additional tonne of carbon dioxide emissions.

Based on these estimates, the report supports implementing a stronger "Polluter Pays" framework to ensure that environmental costs are borne by those responsible for emissions.

Conclusion

The Mega Science Vision-2035 Report presents a compelling case for strengthening India's climate research ecosystem through scientific self-reliance, technological innovation, and institutional reforms. The report warns that dependence on imported instruments and foreign climate models undermines the quality of climate science and limits India's ability to respond effectively to emerging environmental challenges.