Maldives suspends three Deputy Ministers

Context: The Maldives government suspended three of its ministers- Mariyam Shiuna, Malsha and Hassan Zihan- for their ‘derogatory remarks on India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following the latter's Lakshadweep visit.

News:

In retaliation more than 8,000 hotel bookings, as well as 2,500 flight tickets, have been cancelled after a Maldivian minister insulted Indian PM ,various social media posts claim.

India and Maldives relations:

Strategic Significance: Due to its proximity to India, with Minicoy in Lakshadweep just 70 nautical miles away and the mainland's western coast 300 nautical miles away, the Maldives holds strategic importance for India. This becomes particularly crucial in light of China's increasing assertiveness in the region.

Political Ties: India was among the first countries to recognize the Maldives upon its independence in 1965, establishing a mission in Male in 1972. The two nations share deep-rooted connections in terms of ethnicity, language, culture, religion, and commerce. Founding members of SAARC, the South Asian Economic Union, and signatories to the South Asia Free Trade Agreement, they consistently support each other in various multilateral forums.

Strategic Relationship: The Maldives' location in the Indian Ocean, near major shipping lanes crucial for uninterrupted energy supplies to China, Japan, and India, solidifies its role as India's key maritime neighbor in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It aligns with India's vision of 'SAGAR' (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the 'Neighbourhood First Policy.'

Defence Cooperation: The signing of a technical agreement on sharing 'White Shipping Information' facilitates the exchange of prior information on the movements of commercial, non-military vessels. The joint military exercise, Ekuverin, strengthens military ties between India and the Maldives.

Trade and Economic Relations: The 1981 trade agreement ensures the export of essential commodities, and India provides items like rice, wheat flour, sugar, dal, onion, potato, eggs, and construction materials to the Maldives on favorable terms. India maintains a positive Balance of Trade with the Maldives.

Development Assistance: India's assistance in diverse areas, such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and technology adoption, has contributed significantly to the Maldives' development. Noteworthy projects include the Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital, Maldives Polytechnic, India-Maldives Faculty of Hospitality & Tourism Studies, and infrastructure developments like ports, airports, and stadiums.

Crucial Interventions: Operations like Cactus in 1988 prevented a coup attempt, and subsequent initiatives like Operation Neer and assistance during water treatment plant collapse showcased India's commitment to the Maldives' well-being.

Challenges in India-Maldives Relations:

Political Instability: The Maldives has experienced political instability, marked by government changes and a constitutional crisis, causing tensions between India and the Maldives.

Increasing Chinese Influence: India is apprehensive about China's growing influence in the Maldives, reflected in substantial infrastructure projects and loans provided by China. The expanding involvement of smaller regional states in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other Chinese ventures raises concerns.

Border Dispute Strategies: China's attempts to resolve border disputes with neighboring countries (excluding India), as observed in the case of Bhutan, serve as part of its strategy to gain influence in the region.

Economic Challenges: The Maldives is grappling with an economic crisis, resulting in delays in implementing development projects and facing issues related to debt.

Divergent Approaches to Terrorism: India expresses worry about the surge in Islamic extremism in the Maldives and urges decisive action from the Maldivian government.

However, the Maldives has its own perspectives and concerns regarding the approach to countering terrorism and extremism.

Tourism Dynamics: While India has traditionally been a significant market for Maldives tourism, the Maldives aims to diversify its tourism sector and reduce dependence on India.

India out policy: Mohamed Muizzu has opted for an ‘India-out’ policy by choosing Turkey as his first foreign destination which is seen as significant swings in foreign policy of Maldives.

Way Forward:

Enhanced Involvement in Maldivian Domestic Politics: India should increase its engagement with the internal political dynamics of the Maldives. The recent Maldivian election highlighted that even minor shifts in the domestic power balance can lead to significant changes in the country's external orientation.

Collaboration with Gulf Allies: India ought to collaborate closely with like-minded partners in the Gulf to avert potential destabilization caused by Turkey in the Maldives.  Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having experienced Turkey's assertiveness in the region, share an interest in preventing the Maldives from falling into a Turkish sphere of influence.

Preventing External Influence: It is crucial for India to work collaboratively with its Gulf partners to safeguard the Maldives from external influences that may lead to destabilization. Addressing potential challenges and ensuring the Maldives maintains a stable external orientation should be a collective effort among India and its Gulf allies.