India’s great grain mystery

Context: India's cereal production, mainly rice and wheat, crossed 300 million tonnes for the first time in 2022-23, reaching 304 million tones.There is a large and growing gap between cereal production and the known uses of it. Data gaps make an assessment more difficult.

The gap:

• The latest estimates of per capita cereal consumption (PCCC) pertain to 2011-12, with figures ranging from 10.7 kg to 11.8 kg per month
• There is a significant gap between production and household consumption, with the gap reaching 36 million tonnes in 2020-21 and 33 million tonnes in 2021-22, despite record exports in both years
• The gap between net availability and household consumption has been growing, raising questions about the accuracy of the "net availability" estimates

The declining trend in per capita cereal consumption in India can be attributed to several factors, including:

• Availability of nutrient-poor cereals like rice and wheat, which are preferred over nutrient-rich coarse cereals like jowar, ragi, and bajra
• Shifts in household consumption patterns due to urbanization, rising education levels, and diversification of food intake
• Insufficient policies at the state level to promote the consumption of coarse cereals and mitigate health problems arising from micronutrient intake deficiencies
• Variations in cereal consumption among different monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) classes, with lower MPCE classes consuming less than the national average
• Decline in cereal consumption in rural areas of all states, while in urban areas, five states exhibited an increase in consumption pattern over time
• Lack of data on the actual reasons for the gap between production and household consumption, including the possibility of increased animal feed consumption or industrial uses of cereals

Solutions:

• Promotion of Coarse Cereals: Encouraging the consumption of nutrient-rich coarse cereals like jowar, ragi, and bajra, which are currently under-consumed compared to rice and wheat
• Policy Amendments: Revising state-level policies to promote the consumption of coarse cereals, mitigate health problems arising from micronutrient deficiencies, and ensure climate-resilient food supply
• Data Collection and Analysis: Conducting comprehensive studies to understand the reasons for the declining trend in cereal consumption, including the impact of urbanization, education levels, and shifts in household consumption patterns
• Diversification of Agricultural Production: Planning for a major diversification of agricultural production away from rice and wheat to balance the cereal production with consumption requirements
• Export Opportunities: Exploring the feasibility and desirability of expanding cereal exports to address the surplus production and the increasing gap between production and consumption
• Awareness and Education: Creating greater awareness about the importance of coarse cereals and promoting their consumption through educational campaigns and nutritional programs

These solutions can help bridge the gap between per capita cereal consumption and total production in India, ensuring a more balanced and sustainable food supply