India–Bangladesh

A report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, titled “Future of India–Bangladesh Relationship”, has observed that recent developments in Bangladesh constitute India’s most serious strategic challenge since the 1971 Liberation War. These changes test the resilience of one of India’s most consequential bilateral relationships in South Asia.

Overview of the Strategic Challenge

Bangladesh’s recent political and societal shifts threaten the deep-rooted cooperation between the two countries in areas such as trade, connectivity, energy, and defence. To safeguard its strategic interests, India needs to recalibrate its Bangladesh policy by engaging a broader spectrum of stakeholders, transparently addressing sensitive issues, and offering competitive development partnerships to retain strategic influence.

Recent Developments in Bangladesh Posing Strategic Challenges to India

Political Realignment

The fall of the pro-India Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 marked the end of a prolonged phase of political stability in Bangladesh. This shift has led to the emergence of new political actors such as the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student activists involved in the protests, and the re-emergence of Jamaat-e-Islami, a conservative Islamist party widely perceived to hold anti-India views.

Growing External Influence

Bangladesh’s expanding strategic engagement with China, including plans to upgrade the Lalmonirhat airfield near India’s Siliguri Corridor, has heightened India’s security concerns. Simultaneously, renewed Pakistani outreach, such as the visit of the Pakistan Navy frigate PNS Saif, risks eroding India’s traditional strategic space in Bangladesh.

Anti-India Protests and Communal Violence

The killing of Bangladeshi youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi triggered violent unrest, during which India’s Assistant High Commission in Chattogram was vandalised. These events demonstrate how Bangladesh’s internal instability can directly affect bilateral diplomatic relations.

India’s Humanitarian Dilemma

India’s decision to provide refuge to Sheikh Hasina on humanitarian grounds has become a point of friction. Bangladesh’s interim government has accused her of fomenting unrest from Indian soil and has demanded her extradition, while India has consistently maintained that it is not providing her any political platform.

Stalled Bilateral Agreements

The Ganga Water Treaty of 1996, due for renewal in December 2026, has not yet entered formal negotiations. The absence of early dialogue risks creating a strategic vacuum and potential water-related disputes.

Shifting Societal Attitudes

A new generation in Bangladesh, less emotionally connected to the 1971 liberation narrative, is driving a form of nationalism that is often sceptical of India. The convergence of resurgent Islamist forces and assertive youth nationalism has increased internal volatility with direct spillover risks for India’s security. Statements such as warnings by NCP leader Hasnat Abdullah regarding India’s Northeast illustrate this emerging hostility.

Implications of These Developments for India

Geopolitical and Security Concerns

The removal of a pro-India government has reduced strategic predictability and weakened security cooperation. China’s activities near the Siliguri Corridor, combined with Pakistan’s renewed engagement, intensify India’s two-front security challenge.

Internal Security Risks

Political instability in Bangladesh increases the risks of illegal migration, infiltration, and cross-border radicalisation. Communal violence and the rise of extremist groups also raise concerns about domestic polarisation in India’s border states.

Diplomatic Challenges

The sheltering of Sheikh Hasina has created an extradition dilemma, while rising anti-India sentiment complicates negotiations on sensitive issues such as water-sharing and border management.

Economic and Connectivity Impacts

Political uncertainty threatens ongoing and planned connectivity and infrastructure projects, thereby weakening India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East policies.

Narrative and Perception Battle

India increasingly faces the perception of being an imperialist power that supported an authoritarian regime, resulting in erosion of goodwill among sections of Bangladeshi society.

Bangladesh: Geographic and Strategic Profile

Bangladesh is a South Asian country sharing extensive land borders with India to the west, north, and northeast, and with Myanmar to the southeast, along with a coastline on the Bay of Bengal. It is a vast riverine delta formed by the Padma (Ganges), Jamuna (Brahmaputra), and Meghna rivers, with fertile floodplains covering nearly 80 percent of its land.

The country hosts rich biodiversity, including the Sundarbans, the world’s largest tidal mangrove forest and habitat of the endangered Bengal tiger, and St. Martin’s Island, Bangladesh’s only coral-bearing island.

Status of India–Bangladesh Relations So Far

Political and Diplomatic Engagement

Bangladesh is a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy and a convergence point for the Neighbourhood First Policy, Act East Policy, and Indo-Pacific vision. Both countries actively engage in regional groupings such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, BBIN, and IORA.

Boundary and Maritime Settlements

The 2015 Land Boundary Agreement and maritime delimitation are landmark achievements that have significantly enhanced mutual trust and stability.

Connectivity and Infrastructure

India and Bangladesh have developed extensive multimodal connectivity, including revived rail links, cross-border bus services, inland waterways under the PIWTT, and access to Chattogram and Mongla ports for Indian cargo. Integrated Check Posts further facilitate cross-border movement.

Economic and Energy Cooperation

Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade reaching USD 14.01 billion in FY 2023–24. Energy cooperation includes the import of 1,160 MW of electricity, the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant, and the India–Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.

Development Partnership and Capacity Building

India has extended Lines of Credit worth nearly USD 8 billion, including a USD 500 million defence LoC, and provided grant assistance for key infrastructure projects. Thousands of Bangladeshi civil servants, judicial officers, and defence personnel have been trained in India.

Way Forward: Revitalising India–Bangladesh Relations

Revitalisation requires institutionalised crisis management mechanisms, including a bilateral political response channel and enhanced consular coordination. India must engage beyond governments by reaching out to political parties, civil society, youth, media, and intellectuals, while strengthening Track II and Track 1.5 dialogues.

India should adopt transparent water diplomacy, initiating early discussions on the Ganga Water Treaty and pursuing basin-wide cooperation on other shared rivers. Promoting the spirit of 1971 through people-centric cultural and humanitarian initiatives can rebuild emotional goodwill among younger generations.

India must counter strategic competition by offering attractive, transparent, and efficient partnerships, rather than seeking exclusivity. At the same time, intensified border security coordination is essential to manage infiltration risks and prevent escalation.

Conclusion

India–Bangladesh relations stand at a critical crossroads, shaped by political realignments, youth nationalism, and external strategic competition. Sustaining this vital partnership requires proactive diplomacy, transparent resource management, inclusive engagement, and strengthened connectivity. By carefully balancing humanitarian values with strategic interests, India can preserve regional stability and foster a resilient, mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh