NEWS: The recent UNFCCC conference in Dubai (COP28) marked a significant shift in addressing climate change.Instead of the usual lip service to adaptation, a critical issue often neglected by the international community, COP28 finally pushed this concern into the spotlight. This suggests a potential move away from the traditional focus on mitigation (reducing emissions) towards a more balanced approach that recognizes the need for both mitigation and adaptation strategies.

CONTEXT: The COP continues to serve as the focal point for constructing the framework of global climate governance. In COPs, every nation has a say, increasing the likelihood that issues related to fairness and susceptibility will be addressed.

• COP28 focused on addressing adaptation concerns, culminating in the adoption of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) framework, guided by the Paris Agreement.
• The world is experiencing extreme weather events at 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the urgency of treating adaptation on par with mitigation.
• Mitigation efforts outlined in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to restrict global temperature rise below 1.5°C, potentially reaching 2.8°C by the end of the century.
• The GGA framework prioritizes adaptation actions, including conducting climate hazard assessments and establishing multi-hazard early warning systems by 2030.
• Challenges in GGA implementation include the need for up-to-date assessments, policy formulation, and addressing influencing factors at the national level.
• Unlike mitigation, climate adaptation lacks a universal metric, and the GGA draft decisions include a two-year work program on indicators for measuring progress, without specifying details.
• The COP28 Draft Decision expresses concern about the widening adaptation finance gap, with an estimated cost of $71 billion per year from now to 2030.
• Climate financing has a strong bias in favor of mitigation over adaptation, with a split of 95:5, and self-reporting indicates a 34% share of adaptation in total climate finance to developing countries in 2020.
• The GGA falls short in treating adaptation on par with mitigation, emphasizing the need to hold the global average temperature increase below 2°C and 1.5°C, adding greater levels of mitigation.

Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA):

The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was created within the framework of the Paris Agreement with the aim of advancing

climate change adaptation. It seeks to raise awareness and financial support for countries' adaptation requirements within the context of the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5/2°C.

The preliminary text of the GGA focuses on key issues, including the reduction of climate-induced water scarcity, the promotion of climate-resilient food and agriculture production, and the enhancement of resilience against health impacts related to climate change.

Primary Objective of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA):

The main aim of the Global Goal on Adaptation is for Parties to the Paris Agreement to conduct current assessments related to climate hazards, impacts of climate change, exposure to risks, and vulnerabilities. Additionally, they are expected to utilize the outcomes of these assessments in shaping their national  adaptation plans, policy instruments, and planning processes/strategies by the year 2030.

Challenges in Implementing the Global Goal on Adaptation:

By the year 2027, all participating Parties are required to establish multi-hazard early warning systems, climate information services for risk reduction, and systematic observation. This is intended to enhance climate-related data, information, and services, and a crucial aspect is evaluating its impact on advancing adaptation efforts.

A notable challenge lies in the transfer of globally agreed goals from the international to the national level. Experiences from the Millennium Development Goals indicate that this transfer is not seamless. Factors influencing successful implementation include national conditions such as administrative capacity, economic development, and the provision of adequate support.

Assessing the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA):

Determining the ambition or level of implementation of the GGA cannot be straightforwardly aggregated solely based on the national commitments made by countries.

The GGA framework has initiated a two-year work program focused on developing indicators to measure the progress made in attaining the targets outlined in the GGA draft decisions. However, the current framework does not specify the entities responsible for developing these indicators or the methodology involved.

Funding the Fight Against Climate Change: COP28 Draft Decision Highlights Gaps and Urges Action

Widening Adaptation Gap:

The COP28 draft decision emphasizes the growing disparity between the Resources needed to adapt to climate change and the funding available. This "adaptation finance gap" continues to widen, posing a serious threat to vulnerable communities around the world.

Doubling Down on Commitments:

COP28 reiterates the call from COP26, urging developed countries to double their adaptation funding by 2025 compared to 2019 levels. This highlights the urgency of scaling up financial support to help developing nations cope with the impacts of climate change.

Estimating the Need:

Based on updated national climate plans and targets, estimations suggest that around $71 billion per year will be needed between now and 2030 to meet adaptation needs. This substantial figure underscores the significant funding gap that must be addressed.

Falling Short of Promises:

Despite commitments made earlier, developed countries, through the OECD, acknowledge that their combined climate finance flows fell short of the $100 billion target in 2020, reaching only $83.3 billion. This shortfall underlines the need for concrete action to bridge the gap and fulfill promised funding.

Bridging the Adaptation Gap: Moving Beyond Promises to Action

Historically, climate change action has focused heavily on mitigation - reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This bias arises from several factors:

• Global Benefits of Mitigation: Mitigation efforts, like switching to renewable energy, benefit all countries through reduced global warming.
• Local Impact of Adaptation: Adaptation activities, like building seawalls or drought-resistant crops, primarily benefit specific regions facing immediate climate impacts.
• Cost-Effective Mitigation Opportunities: Developing countries often offer cost-effective options for emission reductions, attracting more Resources towards mitigation projects. However, neglecting adaptation poses a grave risk to developing nations already bearing the brunt of climate change. Despite a recent uptick in adaptation funding, reaching $6 billion in 2020, the imbalance remains stark: Uneven Funding Split: Adaptation still receives only 34% of total climate finance, dwarfed by mitigation's 66% share. While the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) adopted at COP28 represents a positive step, it falls short of achieving true parity between mitigation and adaptation:

• Mitigation Dominates: The GGA emphasizes keeping global warming below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C, primarily through increased mitigation efforts.
• Adaptation as Secondary: Implicitly, this focus suggests that greater mitigation will reduce the need for adaptation, neglecting the urgent needs of communities already facing climate impacts. To truly address the climate crisis, we must move beyond rhetoric and promises. COP28 needs to be a turning point, not just in acknowledging the adaptation gap but in taking concrete steps to close it. This requires:

• Increased Funding: Significantly ramp up adaptation financing to reach the estimated $71 billion annual need.
• Balanced Approach: Allocate Resources proportionally between mitigation and adaptation, recognizing their equal importance in combating climate change.
• Prioritize Vulnerable Communities: Direct Resources towards those facing the most immediate and severe consequences of climate change. Only by taking such decisive action can we ensure a future where both developed and developing nations can adapt and thrive in a changing climate.