Bangladesh elections and India

Context: A stable, prosperous and friendly Bangladesh is in India’s best interests. This is why India will hope that incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returns to power after the January 7 elections.

Background: Bangladesh gained its independence in December 1971; since then, India Bangladesh Relations have been good. India was one of the first nations to recognize it and establish diplomatic ties with it. There are many similarities between India and Bangladesh, including their shared history, languages, and cultures. Bilateral solid relations reflect a comprehensive partnership far beyond a strategic alliance founded on sovereignty, equality, trust, and understanding.

Significance of Bangladesh elections for India:

• The two nations have a substantial 4,100-km border and share profound historical, cultural, and economic connections. India's optimal scenario involves a stable, prosperous, and amicable Bangladesh.
• The Muslim-majority nation of about 170 million people, Bangladesh is almost surrounded on three sides - barring a 271km (168-mile)-long border with Myanmar in the southeast - by India. For India, Bangladesh is not just a neighbouring country. It's a strategic partner and a close ally, crucial to the security of its north-eastern states.
• Consequently, India strongly supports the current leader, Sheikh Hasina. Regarded as one of India's most trusted friends and allies, she has consistently nurtured a positive and mutually advantageous rapport between the two nations over the years.

What is at stake for India in Bangladesh’s elections?

1. National Security under Hasina's Leadership:

• Before Sheikh Hasina's tenure from 2009, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led government was perceived as hostile to India, sheltering anti-India militant groups.
• Hasina's leadership has significantly improved India's security situation through a crackdown on anti-India elements and enhanced counter-terrorism cooperation.
•    With the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, maintaining close security ties between India and Bangladesh is crucial.

2. Deep Economic Ties:

Bangladesh has witnessed substantial economic growth, surpassing Pakistan as the second-largest economy in South Asia.

•    In 2022-23, Bangladesh became the fifth-largest export destination for Indian goods, accounting for over 2.7% of all Indian exports, worth $12.2 billion.
•    Under Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh facilitates efficient connectivity to India's Northeast and plays a crucial role in regional economic integration.

3. Regional Cooperation:

•    India envisions Bangladesh as a key player in regional cooperation, connecting the Bay of Bengal littoral and linking South and Southeast Asia.
•    Dhaka hosts the secretariat of BIMSTEC, promoting multi-sectoral technical and economic cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region.
•    Many countries, including Japan, have invested significantly in Bangladesh in recent years.

4. Political Stability and Democratic Backsliding:

•    Hasina's tenure has brought political stability to Bangladesh, contributing to regional peace and prosperity.
•    Despite allegations of democratic backsliding, Hasina is seen as India's best option, as alternatives could pose a greater threat to democracy and regional stability.

Bangladesh increasing proximity to China- is it a concern?

1. China Relations:

•    Sheikh Hasina's approach toward China is not perceived as detrimental to India, recognizing the global importance of China and its widespread investments.
•    Bangladesh, apart from Bhutan, has demonstrated careful navigation in balancing tensions between India and China.
•    India's primary concern is that Bangladesh, under Hasina, does not compromise India's security, a red line that Dhaka has respected.

2. US Relations:

•    Historical tensions between Bangladesh and the US and UK, stemming from their proximity to Pakistan and negative roles in 1971, contribute to distrust.
•    The US has been critical of Hasina's government, particularly on human rights issues, but there has been recent rethinking in Washington, with a more tempered approach observed by the US Ambassador in Dhaka.
•    During the G20 Summit in Delhi, Hasina's meeting with President Biden and his senior advisors indicates a potential shift in the Biden administration's stance, appreciating India's interests in Bangladesh.

3. India's Expectations for Fair Elections:

• India hopes that Sheikh Hasina ensures a fair and non-violent election process to avoid providing ammunition to domestic and foreign critics.
•    A positive and strategic view of Bangladesh from outsiders hinges on the conduct of the upcoming elections.

World’s interest in election process:

• The global community has a significant interest in ensuring that the election process in Bangladesh proceeds with minimal interference, given the widespread impact of Islamist rule in the country.
• Despite potential flaws or unfairness in the elections, the primary focus should be on encouraging the Awami League, upon returning to power, to resist Chinese influence, restrain Islamist forces, support a responsible and secular opposition, and eliminate Islamist elements within the party.
• It is crucial to find a middle ground between acknowledging the imperfections in the electoral process and safeguarding Bangladesh's democratic and secular values for the sake of global stability and security.

In summary, the upcoming Bangladesh elections pose a intricate challenge for both the nation and the international community. While fair elections may risk empowering radical Islamists, their absence could perpetuate authoritarianism. Striking a delicate balance and ensuring Bangladesh's future as a democratic and secular nation is vital for global stability and peace.